A Worst-Case Scenario for China

Even with the outlook for the world economy rapidly worsening, many economists are still relatively optimistic about the prospects for the Chinese economy next year. While the International Monetary Fund recently lowered its forecast for 2009 real GDP growth to 5 percent, the World Bank is expecting 7.5 percent. This was also the consensus estimate of professional forecasters surveyed earlier this month by Frankfurt-based Dekabank. Wang Tong-san, a spokesperson for the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, was even more upbeat at a recent press conference, telling reporters he expected 9 percent, or even a bit more, and putting the likelihood of this prediction at "better than 70 percent."

Read →

Comments on this post are for paid subscribers