With maverick Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte perhaps poised to win the Philippine presidency on May 9, the more important races may well be in the Philippine Congress, which at least for now has little loyalty to the tough-talking Duterte.
Duterte has sparked a political earthquake that in turn has generated rumors of coup talk in Manila even before he takes office, if indeed he does. In addition to vowing extradjudicial killings by police to control crime, he has threatened to simply close the legislature, telling the local news website Interaksyon that if it opposes him “I will close Congress. I will use the billions of money to fix government.”
There is always the possibility that either Grace Poe or Manuel A. Roxas, President Benigno Aquino’s picked heir, could pull it out although that is a long shot. Still, a full quarter of the voting population is undecided and compared to the political machinery in the hands of President Aquino to bring out the votes, Duterte is said to be thin on the ground. Nonetheless, Duterte, in the latest Pulse Asia poll April 26-29, was maintaining a 33 percent lead over Roxas at 22 percent and Poe at 21 percent.
That has generated immediate speculation over impeachment even before the projected July 1 inauguration date, with Vice Presidential candidate Ferdinand Marcos Jr. saying publicly that impeachment is an option. Marcos himself is a frontrunner for the vice-presidency but suggested that if his fiercest rival, Leni Robredo wins, Congress would work to impeach Duterte so the Liberal Party could install her as president. Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV, another vice presidential candidate, has also threatened impeachment proceedings.
Thus from the start lines are being drawn, with Duterte saying either you are for me or against me, if you are not, then you go.
The question is whether Duterte would really be able to rein in the lawmakers, or whether the House of Representatives would follow him into power, as inevitably has happened in the past. While supposedly independent of one another, the Congress and the Presidency depend on each other for political survival although this interdependence is more pronounced in the House of Representatives, where political party loyalty is faint and where government patronage dispensed by the presidency plays a major role in determining it. Former President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo saw her once-formidable backing in Congress disappear when Benigno S. Aquino III took office and sought her criminal indictment.
The lower house is composed of 292 men and women who were voted into power by their individual constituencies, while the Senate has 24 members elected nationally with half elected in each three-year election period. Turncoatism is to be expected in the house, according to Ramon Casiple of the Institute for Political Reforms, because their concerns are mainly parochial. The Senate, however, will zero in on national issues.
“The House of Representatives will go Duterte’s way due to the balimbing (“two-faced”) factor. Maybe part of the Senate. But the latter is known for independent positioning because of presidential ambitions,” Casiple said.
The Senate has gone against President Benigno S. Aquino’s wishes occasionally, insisting for instance that the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement between the US and the Philippines in 2015 could only be ratified with the legislative body’s concurrence. It has also stalled on the Bangsamoro pact, one of the president’s capstone goals, in providing autonomy to Mindanao’s Muslim population.
There were times, however when the Senate also subscribed to the president’s priorities, passing the milestone reproductive health law and a sin tax law. It also voted for the impeachment of then-Chief Justice Renato Corona, whom the administration perceived as an ally of Aquino’s predecessor, former president and now Pampanga Rep. Gloria Macapagal Arroyo.
The House of Representatives got the ball rolling by filing the impeachment complaint against Corona and acting as prosecutors in a historic impeachment trial, the first to involve a chief justice. The Senate, voting 20-3, convicted Corona following his admission that he did not declare a total of P183 million in peso and dollar deposits in his Statement of Assets, Liabilities and Networth (SALN).
Duterte’s political party, the Partido Demokratiko Pilipino-Lakas ng Bayan or PDP-Laban fielded no senatorial candidates, although Duterte himself endorsed five contenders – former Metro Manila Development Authority chairman Francis Tolentino, who withdrew from the senatorial slate of the Liberal party; former Quezon City Rep. Dante Liban; former Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency director Dionisio Santiago and former Manila councilor Greco Belgica.
None of them, however, has figured well in the senatorial surveys, which were dominated by Aquino’s allies – incumbent senators Franklin Drilon and Ralph Recto, presidential assistant for food security and agricultural modernization Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan, Justice Sec. Leila de Lima, former Sen. Panfilo Lacson, Technical and Skills Development Authority Joel Villanueva and Philhealth board director Risa Hontiveros.