US Navy Loses More Warplanes in South China Sea
Foul play or sign of US naval power fraying at the seams?
By: Andy Wong Ming Jun
The latest reports of two US Navy warplanes currently deployed as part of Carrier Air Wing 7 aboard the USS Nimitz crashing while on routine operations in the South China Sea have raised alarm within the American defense community about the state of US naval and carrier-borne airpower.
The loss of a US$70 million F/A-18F Super Hornet and a US$40 million MH-60R Sea Hawk helicopter within less than an hour in separate ditching incidents resulted in no loss of life with all five crew members rescued, but brings the current count of naval aircraft lost on active operations this year to a total of four lost at sea while on active operations.
Two Super Hornets were previously lost between late April and early May this year from Carrier Air Wing 1 deployed aboard the USS Harry S Truman while on active operations combating Houthi anti-shipping drone and missile strikes. Unlike the latest aircraft losses from the Nimitz, the two lost from the Truman were fairly straightforward: one failed to catch the arrestor wires during landing, and another rolled off the hangar deck into the sea as the 90,000-ton supercarrier heeled hard during evasive maneuvers following reports of an incoming Houthi drone and antiship-missile strike.
While the Navy is still investigating the causes behind the rare separate aircraft losses from the Nimitz’s current deployment in the South China Sea, the location of the carrier strike group has provided fertile ground for unsubstantiated theories of Chinese electronic jamming playing a role in both incidents. However, more prosaic speculation involves the possibility of contaminated fuel being behind the losses, given the close time proximity of both incidents during otherwise routine and separate operations which suggests the potential of a shared common factor behind both crashes.
Beyond that, however, there has been growing alarm in Congress and among defense planners about the overall material state of the US Navy’s battle fleet. Despite having recently celebrated its 250th anniversary, the current fleet numbers just under 300 ships, a far cry from its Cold War heights. The numerical diminution of the US Navy is the result of decades of budgetary cuts even as its ships increasingly age and require more funds to maintain them. This is further compounded by various other issues such as personnel shortages, overbooked and insufficient repair facilities and supply chain bottlenecks for critical parts.
According to a US Navy insider commenting anonymously to Asia Sentinel, mechanical or maintenance failure is also a probable factor of consideration for the latest losses.
“USS Nimitz has currently been deployed for over 200 days ever since it last left its homeport of Kitsap Bay, Washington State on the US West Coast,” the source said. “With an average operational tempo of anywhere between 60 to 90 daily sorties during routine deployment training periods, it is a non-zero probability that mishaps and sometimes even aircraft losses can and do happen simply due to how long these aircraft are kept constantly flying on such long deployments.”
That is the price to pay “for having an active-duty carrier air wing practicing day in, day out to stay operations-qualified and ready to go into harm’s way at a moment’s notice,” the source said. “The priority within the Navy is always to minimize such incidents and loss of expensive aircraft, but the safety of Navy crew members and carrier aviation pilots will always remain paramount.”
The Nimitz is currently on its final deployment of its half-century active career since her commissioning in May 1975 as the first of 10 nuclear-powered supercarriers forming the core of US global naval power projection during the second half of the Cold War. Her operational deployment to the Western Pacific and South China Sea is part of her long final voyage westbound to Naval Station Norfolk on the US eastern seaboard where she is expected to arrive sometime in 2026 for inactivation and final retirement.
By federal law, the US Navy is required at all times to have 11 aircraft carriers in active service, the bare minimum number required to meet the material and doctrinal requirements called the “one-third rule.” In military parlance, this means that for every single unit actively deployed, two of the same will be working up to active deployment and in maintenance, respectively, for a sustainable presence in theater.
In recent years, there has been a resurgence in advocacy most commonly described as “aircraft carrier math” for the US Navy to increase its supercarrier force to a minimum of 15 such warships in order to maintain a constant forward-deployed presence in the three key maritime theatres of European waters, the Middle East, and the Asia-Pacific.
In the present reality, however, the US Navy is set to breach its federal law requirement for an 11-carrier fleet for at least a year: Nimitz, if retired as planned in 2026, will only be replaced by the currently-fitting-out USS John F. Kennedy in 2027, barring any further delivery delays.
It is also important to note that even for a material military superpower like the US once known as the “arsenal of democracy” for the Allied Powers during WWII, it is not so materially abundant in carrier aviation assets like helicopters and naval multirole fighter jets as to cavalierly write off lost aircraft from accidents or human-caused negligent mishaps. Currently, Boeing is doing a final production run of 17 new single-seat F/A-18E and twin-seat F/A-18F Super Hornets, which were ordered in March 2024 and are scheduled to be completed by early 2027.
Ongoing US Navy efforts to replace its Super Hornet air wings with F-35C Lightning II fifth-generation stealth fighter jets have been seriously hampered by delivery delays across the board for the entire F-35 program, with some analysts saying the US Navy’s ongoing Service Life Modification (SLM) program for its existing older F/A-18 Super Hornets is tantamount to a tacit admission of failure in replacing the fourth-generation legacy naval fighter jet with the much-hyped F-35C.
The most immediate issue now for the US Navy is to plan for the recovery of the crashed Sea Hawk and Super Hornet from the depths of the South China Sea, if only to deny any potential Chinese efforts at intelligence salvaging from the wrecked warplanes. Considering the previous successful salvage in August 2022 of another Super Hornet from the Mediterranean Sea in waters over 9,000 feet deep and a F-35C from the South China Sea in March 2022 over 12,000 feet deep, it is an achievable endeavor for the US Navy to accomplish.
Andy Wong Ming Jun writes on defense matters for Asia Sentinel