Thailand’s Upstart Democratic Forces Likely to End Junta’s Reign

Harvard-educated businessman expected to become PM Wednesday

It is beginning to appear, against the odds, that Thailand’s 42-year-old Pita Limjaroenrat, whose center-left Move Forward Party set off a political earthquake in the May 14 election, will hold his eight-party coalition together and turn enough votes in the Senate away from the military to become Thailand’s next prime minister.

Obviously, Thai politics being what they are, anything could happen. The decision to name the next prime minister has been stalled for the intervening nine weeks in the wait for the legislature to return, which begins July 13. If Pita stumbles, forces aligned with onetime PM Thaksin Shinawatra, which signed an agreement not to challenge move Forward, are waiting in the wings. The military parties have been drubbed so mercilessly by the voters that a minority coalition does not seem unlikely.

Move Forward famously has piled up enough chits on its way to power to unsettle the military, the royalty, and the ruling elites in Bangkok. The party, whose base is strongly among the country’s young and educated, campaigned for the increased social programs, legalization of same-sex marriage, the scrapping of military conscription, amending the country’s lèse-majesté laws, among the world’s strictest, scrutinizing the royal budget and decentralization of the government. The monarchy is headed by the 70-year-old Rama X, Maha Vajiralongkorn, who has long been regarded as unstable, and who has little sympathy for Move Forward’s plans.

Thus there remains the possibility that the country’s Constitutional Court could end Pita’s bid by ruling that his ownership of shares in a media company, which is illegal under Thai law, could disqualify him. But the shares, which were bequeathed to him by his grandfather, are in a company that is moribund. It was that kind of Constitutional Court decision that ended the political aspirations of Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit and the Future Forward party from which Move Forward sprang.

If the court were to deliver such a ruling, Pita wouldn’t be eligible for election as prime minister, which is likely to cause emotions to boil over in a country that has seen the majority’s democratic aspirations denied since 2006, when the military kicked Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra out of power in a coup and which has used the courts and coups to rule most of the time since.

Public anger and aggravation have been building in the weeks since democratic forces overwhelmingly won the May election but have faced a difficult task to take over the government in the face of a 2018 constitution rigged by the military to perpetuate itself in power.

“Protests are possible across Thailand through at least mid-July...as the political situation in the country remains uncertain,” according to the security risk and crisis management firm Crisis 24, if the military uses a subterfuge to stay in power. “Authorities will likely impose heightened security measures, including deploying additional personnel at demonstration sites. Localized transport and business disruptions are possible near rallies, particularly if activists occupy nearby streets. Security personnel may try to disperse gatherings if they are disruptive. Clashes between protesters and police are possible.”

With the likelihood of that receding if democratic forces prevail, the 250-member Senate and the 500-member House of Representatives are to meet jointly Wednesday to name the government’s new leader, likely putting an end to nine years of military rule since the 2014 coup that brought the current prime minister, Prayuth Chan-ocha, to power.

The winning candidate must garner at least 376 votes from the two houses to take over the government. Move Forward won 151 seats in the May election, upending the plans of Thaksin, whose Pheu Thai Party won 141 seats, to return to power.

Pita will be nominated by his eight-party coalition, which controls 312 House seats, which means he must persuade at least 64 members of the upper house, all of whom were appointed by the military, to cross over to the democratic coalition in order to win.

“All eight will stick together to support Pita until the end no matter how many rounds of votes they take to select a PM,” said an astute longtime political analysis. “Pita will also need the support of 65 senators who, up till now, have not declared their preference. and have kept the cards close to their chest for good reason. Many of them want to vote for Pita but to say it aloud would run the risk of prematurely offending their overlords who appointed them and will be subjected to intense lobbying.”

Those senators who wish to cross the line to support the democratic coalition are motivated by a need to vindicate themselves from the suspicion of siding with a dictatorship, and they want to curry favors with the people over future political ambitions, he said. “My feeling is that when the time comes, many of them may vote for Pita.”

Part of the reason for confidence is last week’s election of the Speaker of the House, in which the coalition held together, driven by cooperation between Move Forward and Pheu Thai, to nominate the 79-year-old Wan Muhamad Noor Matha, 79, who represents the Prachachart Party, a junior member of the alliance. Wan Noor, a Malay Muslim from the country’s deep south, is a former house speaker with close ties to Pheu Thai and Thaksin.

In addition, there is dissension in the ranks among the former government coalition, many of whom didn’t vote for the speakership candidate put forward by Ruam Thai Sang Chat, the party led by the former Premier Prayuth Chan-ocha, who led a 2014 coup to end democratic government led by Thaksin’s sister Yingluck. The block of MPs who abstained are considered likely to end up voting for Pita. Together with the support of the rebel senators, these MPs are expected to tip the balance and give Pita an overwhelming majority in the bicameral sitting on July 13.

Although Pita may have overplayed his hand by organizing a protest mob to threaten those who didn’t support him, it is unlikely to change the outcome. It is very difficult to see the formation of a minority government headed by either Prayuth or his fellow general Prawit Wongsuwon as long as the eight-party alliance can stay together and support Pita.

“The alliance, as well as some senators, know the Thai people have spoken and wish to see a genuine democratic government so that the country can move forward.” The political analyst said. “The business sector also sees the urgency of having a government acceptable to the world community so as to attract foreign investments and promote their business.”

There are international implications as well. Thailand has become a key actor in the fulcrum of power between western forces led by the United States in competition with China. The military government has dismayed the west by giving increasing support to its fellow junta in Myanmar which is carrying on a cruel and bloody civil war against its own democratic forces since a February 2021 coup. The Thai junta has also repeatedly sent back political refugees from China’s beleaguered Uyghur minority and is regarded as having tilted to China after decades of cold-war alignment with the US.

It's uncertain which way Pita might turn. But he is a Harvard-educated businessman who in March tweeted his opposition to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and has made comments against Thailand’s quiet support of the Myanmar junta. Whether he would be allowed to make a dramatic turn is uncertain, since it is the military that has held the real reins of power since the 21936 coup that ended the absolute monarchy.