Thai Cabinet Reshuffle: Reunion of Thaksin’s Cronies
Crafty political architect solidifies power despite handicaps
By: Pithaya Pookaman
Thaksin Shinawatra, a shrewd political mastermind who returned to Thailand after 15 years from his self-exile base in Dubai in August last year, has demonstrated his political clout in the face of doubts following the general election exactly a year ago by engineering a cabinet reshuffle through which he expects to ensure his Pheu Thai Party’s dominance in Thai politics.
It was far from certain that he could do that. Pheu Thai won only 141 seats in the 500-member parliament to 151 for Move Forward, headed by the youthful, Harvard-trained Pita Limjaroenrat, whose campaign seemingly came from nowhere in the May 14, 2023 polls to unsettle the military and the oligarchy by promising definitive change after nine years of junta-led rule that were characterized by deep corruption and economic paralysis. The 11-party coalition put together after three months of negotiations under Pheu Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin following the elections left the powerful military parties Palang Pracharat and United Thai Nation, both linked to former military chief Prayuth Can-ocha, in important cabinet positions.
The 74-year-old Thaksin, who continued to engineer politics through two military coups from abroad and the court dissolution of two of his surrogate political parties, was considered weakened by the fact that his return from exile was conditioned on his serving out a term for corruption under house arrest. But today, with Move Forward in danger of being dissolved by the Constitutional Court for allegedly breaching royal defamation law, Pita has been reduced to serving as a mere member of the House of Representatives, Thaksin has been granted a royal pardon and the military has been at least temporarily defanged by bringing it under a cabinet minister loyal to Thaksin.
Operating from behind the scenes, Thaksin’s April 28 reshuffle has placed his allies in important positions in the multi-polar government coalition. Chief among them is Thaksin’s most trusted Pheu Thai ally, Phumtham Wechayachai, who has not only retained his commerce ministry portfolio but also continues as Deputy premier overseeing important ministries such as defense, agriculture and cooperatives, digital, PM’s Office, and the Public Relations Department. Phumtham will also serve as acting PM in case Srettha is out of the country. Phumtham is regarded as the most authoritative cabinet minister apart from Srettha.
Moreover, Thaksin has assigned former Thai Rak Thai Party politicians who were former close colleagues to important tasks. This includes Suriya Juangroongruangkit (uncle of Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, leader of the now-defunct Future Forward Party) who now serves as Deputy PM and oversees tourism, communications and transport, culture and public health. Another former Thaksin colleague, Somsak Thepsuthin, is promoted to Deputy PM (replacing Parnpree Bahiddha-nukara as foreign minister) and also takes over the public health ministry, replacing Cholman Srikaew, former Pheu Thai Party leader. Parnpree subsequently tendered his resignation as foreign minister, apparently putting his personal ego above team spirit. The new foreign minister is now Maris Sangiampongsa, an obsequious former career diplomat who will obediently carry out Thaksin’s directives.
Another important move by Thaksin is to appoint Pichai Chunhavajira, formerly Chairman of the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) as finance minister to face-off the recalcitrant Bank of Thailand over matters including the regulation of interest rates and to push Pheu Thai’s populist policy creating a “Digital Wallet” which he hopes would be a potential vote getter as it has already gained traction with the people who hope to get a cash handout of THB10,000 (US$273) from this policy and who remember the populist policies that won Thaksin a widespread following before he was deposed in a 2006 military coup that led to his self-exile.
The new Cabinet reshuffle is also meant to weaken the former government coalition led by former PM Prayuth, the, former leader of United Thai Nation Party (UTNP) and Deputy PM Prawit Wongsuwan, former leaders of Palang Pracharath Party (PPP) and is a move to reclaim lost ground resulting from the coup of 2014 led by Prayuth and from the 2023 election victory by the upstart Move Forward Party. Ministers from UTNP and PPP have been relegated to less important ministerial posts and have to work under the Deputy PM from Pheu Thai Party.
Thammanat Prompao, a controversial minister from PPP, gets to keep his post as deputy agriculture minister but, due to his past close association with Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai Party, is now seen as leaning towards Pheu Thai at the expense of Gen. Prawit, his former boss.
Another former coalition partner, Anutin Charnvirakul of Bhumjaithai, retains his interior ministry portfolio but now has less leverage. His policy legalizing cannabis while he was the public health minister in the former government coalition led by Prayuth may be in jeopardy as the Srettha government seeks to reclassify cannabis from medicinal drug to a narcotic. Bhumjaithai was a breakaway party of Thaksin’s Palang Prachachon Party and allied with Prayuth’s party after the 2014 coup out of expediency and necessity although its roots remain the same as Pheu Thai’s. Likewise, Suriya Juangroongruangkit and Somsak Thepsutin never decoupled from Thaksin and joined the Prayuth-led coalition out of necessity due to their precarious situation after the military coup of 2014.
As Deputy PM Phumtham is also overseeing the defense ministry, he is charged with keeping the powerful military top brass under wraps to forestall any possible military coup so as to ensure the stability of the government by sidelining, if necessary, overly-ambitious military commanders and transferring them to inactive positions in the PM’s Office. They can’t be expelled from the armed forces because they are appointed by royal decrees. The Srettha government has also brought in capable technocrats and Thaksin’s personal lawyer to important government positions to initiate reform in existing laws to facilitate the work of the government and to make military putsch a serious crime.
In an effort to weaken the former government coalition dominated by the military, Pheu Thai can also count on the support of the 16 members of the Democrat Party who last year broke ranks and voted for Srettha, enabling him to become Prime Minister and form a government. After the 2023 general election, the Democrat Party is in disarray and unable to find a charismatic leader to succeed Abhisit Vejjajiva who has now been stripped of his political powers. Moreover, the party was unable to win a single seat in Bangkok, its traditional stronghold, and is a shadow of its former self.
Pheu Thai can also find breathing room with the expiry of the tenure of the military-appointed senators from May 10. These senators, now acting, can’t vote for the PM until the new senate is constituted.
The formation of the Srettha 2 government may cause ripples within Pheu Thai but Thaksin has taken steps to placate victims of the reshuffle with the exception of former Foreign Minister Parnpree. Looking at the bigger picture, the cabinet reshuffle was necessary on the part of Pheu Thai to consolidate its hold on power to ensure its stability and popularity going into the next election against Move Forward. It remains to be seen if Thaksin can pull off another political coup as he did with his Thai Rak Thai Party 25 years ago.
Pithaya Pookaman is a former Thai ambassador and contributor to Asia Sentinel
Good on Thaksin. Revenge is best served cold and the best soups are the ones that have been kept simmering and stewing the longest. 15 years is plenty enough. There won't be a better chance to defang the Thai military's toxic hold on Thai politics than now.