Update: Putin Keeps Kim Waiting in The Dark but Signs Cooperation Pact
A mendicant’s trip by Russian leader, caught in the thick of Ukraine war that shows no sign of abating
By: Shim Jae Hoon
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s gala June 18 visit to North Korea marks a major new departure in their bilateral relations, at a time of worsening global tensions over the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Putin is revisiting his Cold War ally as fresh tensions are running high on the divided Korean peninsula itself. Putin had to come hat-in-hand looking for massive new arms support to fight the protracted war in Europe, and North Korea as the only supplier of conventional arms is eager to oblige, hoping it can open the way for survival of its moribund economy.
South Korean reports say Putin arrived at the wee hour of 2 am Wednesday morning, an unusual time to start a state visit, even for Putin, who is notorious for arriving late for appointment. Kim Jong Un, sweating profusely in his black suit, stood waiting below on the tarmac pacing impatiently, overseeing two lines of honor guards standing at attention. Kim had to cancel a great reception at Kim Il Sung Square meant to display a huge military parade; presumably this will be presented today in the afternoon.
The two signed what a Russian official described as a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement which in plain language means just a friendly relationship. For other countries, it's described just as a "strategic partnership agreement" similar to what China usually signs with any African or Third World visiting heads.
In Washington, officials say North Korea has sent more than 1,000 containers filled with shells to Russia, and is receiving an unknown number of containers filled with food aid. Officials here say North Korean arms supplies are mostly artillery shells and short range missiles although not tanks or other kinds of armored vehicles. At least, poor North Koreans have received something in return to fill their empty stomachs in return for their artillery shells.
The visit was scheduled to include one-on-one discussions between the two leaders, as well as a gala concert, state reception, honor guards, document signings, and a statement to the media, Assistant to the Head of State Yuri Ushakov told reporters, according to Russia's Interfax news agency. North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un is determined to show that Pyongyang remains capable of offering a helping hand, even though Moscow breezily ignored its impoverished Cold War ally by opening ties with South Korea following the collapse of the Soviet system.
It was Putin’s second visit to Pyongyang in a quarter century, a new shot of life for their relations since Kim’s visit to the Russian Far East last September to inspect the Vostochny Cosmodrom, Russia’s main satellite launch point. Putin eagerly guided his guest at the facility, pointing out Russia’s capability in launching rockets and satellites. In exchange for helping Russia with conventional arms, Putin was ready to help with Kim’s ambition to launch a spy satellite of his own.
Although Victor Cha, a former U.S. national security official now with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote that the summit presents the greatest threat to U.S. national security since the Korean War, and predicted that "This relationship, deep in history and reinvigorated by the war in Ukraine, undermines the security of Europe, Asia, and the U.S. homeland," that seems farfetched. The north is already a military logistics lifeline for a Russia desperate to replace its depleted artillery and armored vehicles stocks that have been eaten up by the combat in Ukraine.
Indeed, Russia remains impressed with North Korea’s capability in conventional arms, especially in long range artillery and armored vehicles. Since the agreement to provide conventional arms to help Russia’s war in Ukraine, Moscow helped Kim to successfully launch a spy satellite earlier this year, and in exchange received more than 3.5 million 152mm artillery shells. According to South Korean analysts, Russia as of last February had received more than 3,000 containers filled with these shells. US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller put the number of containers of munitions to Russia far more, at 11,000.
Russia remains impressed by Kim’s ability to provide supplies in time, although some of the shells have been found to be defective, failing to ignite on firing, according to Ukrainian forces fighting at the front. One South Korean specialist has said that at least 20 percent of North Korean shells were duds, failing to explode.
It was thus a mendicant’s trip – Russia, caught in the thick of war it launched in Ukraine more than two years ago, appears desperately seeking help from its erstwhile client state North Korea. In turn for Kim’s help, Putin appears ready to consider responding to Kim’s own shopping list, reportedly containing five major areas of high-tech weapons system such as spy satellites, new-generation fighter jets, nuclear submarines, and hypersonic missiles. Kim last year submitted his own shopping list during the meeting with Putin at Vostochny Cosmodrom in Amur, not too far from the border with North Korea.
It is unknown if that deal was fully sealed, but shortly after Kim’s return from meeting with Putin, Kim was able to launch his first spy satellite. But given North Korea’s history of acquiring missile and nuclear technology through underground trade and espionage, Russia remains cautious in handing over some of its technology in view of North Korea’s past practice of illegally commercializing some Russian technology for sale to third world clients.
In addition to defense collaboration, Kim is said to be eager to strike a deal with Moscow on sending tens of thousands of North Korean workers to Russia as construction and factory workers as a source of foreign exchange earnings. With its labor force slowly declining, Russian industries and the farming sector are said to be in dire need of more workers. Thousands of North Korean workers are already in Russia’s far eastern region, logging and doing construction work. Some of them are also in China’s northeast manning factories and doing menial jobs that Chinese workers shun. Officials in Seoul believe Kim wants to increase the number of North Korean workers in China and Russia by as many as 100,000.
Just how much Putin remains ready to help Pyongyang in strategic areas remains in doubt, however, as both sides must stay watchful of China’s response. The fact that China not only shares a long border with the North, but exercises considerable power as the main source of food and energy aid to the Pyongyang regime, limits Kim’s strategic choice and collaboration with Moscow. Although China recently stayed out of the recent European peace confab on Ukraine, it placed its own independent strategic interests on matters concerning Asia. For instance, although Beijing has kept a distance on the Ukrainian War, it recently chose an independent course rather than follow Russia’s line on regional issues, a good example of this being its abstention on the UN Security Council resolution extending sanctions on the Pyongyang regime, which Moscow opposed.
Similarly, China has recently returned to trilateral summit talks with Japan and South Korea after a four-and-a-half-year absence. In his talks with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, China’s Premier Li Qiang reiterated China’s continuing policy of expanding trade with these Asian export giants. China is also taking a different stance regarding the situation on the peninsula. On the heels of its recent return to the trilateral summit, Beijing has informed Seoul that it will resume annual two-plus-two talks with South Korea on bilateral relations. Thus Beijing will shortly be sending its deputy foreign minister and deputy defense minister to Seoul for annual binational consultations. Beijing clearly is opting for stability, not confrontation.
While Europe is concerned over Russia’s continuing war in Ukraine, North Korea’s strengthening missile capability with Putin’s help keeps Seoul and Tokyo exercised, especially with North Korea aggravating tensions across the Demilitarized Zone in recent weeks by sending balloons packed with trash, as Asia Sentinel reported on June 6. Tensions have also risen across the 155-mile demilitarized zone with North Korean troops continually approaching the military demarcation line, apparently to plant more mines. In retaliation, Seoul has suspended an agreement on limiting the scale of military exercises near the demarcation line.
On the eve of Putin’s visit to Pyongyang, South Korean officials served notice to Kremlin diplomats “not to cross the line” on the reported transfer of missile technology. “We have told Russians to be careful not to go over certain limit” in their missile deals with the Pyongyang regime, a senior security official told a background briefing. The message was clear: South Korea does possess certain leverage in trade and investment that Russia in this time of tension should not ignore.
Excellent analysis of a rapidly-evolving situation by Shim Jae-Hoon.
Wishful thinking is not a form of analysis of any situation let alone something as complex as Russia's and China's relationship with each other and their individual relationships with North Korea.