Pressure Grows on Myanmar’s Junta

Arakan capital of Sittwe in danger of falling

By: Nava Thakuria

Sittwe: next in line

Myanmar’s western Arakan State has turned into a full-scale battleground, with rebel Arakan Army fighters occupying 15 of the state’s 17 townships and seemingly preparing for a final assault on the strategic city of Sittwe, the state capital and site of a US$484 million India-originated project designed to connect it to the eastern Indian seaport of Kolkata to benefit India’s landlocked eastern provinces for trading through water and land routes

The government in Sittwe has largely collapsed, with offices deserted, local reports say, and with residents paying astronomical prices to get on airplanes or boats to flee the city. The military has begun dynamiting bridges leading into the city in the hopes of delaying the AA’s advance, according to reports. It would be the first state capital to fall to resistance forces.

Sittwe for generations been crucial to ensuring the flow of commodities not only to the city itself but to much of Arakan State, also known as Rakhine State. Another port city, Kyaukpyu, is also threatened. India’s ambitious Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Corridor project was initially to be commissioned by 2014 but faces more delays as both the Rakhine and Chin states face turmoil and severe security challenges. Agreed officially between New Delhi and Naypyidaw in 2008, the project supposedly was to be opened in July, seemingly an impossible task.

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The Arakan Army, estimated to have around 45,000 troops, has also seized the important Paletwa township in neighboring Chin State, which links Rakhine to Northeastern India via the Kaladan River, and most border areas touching Bangladesh. It has begun to establish administrative government in the occupied localities.

The junta forces holding the remaining Arakanese localities are facing a difficult situation as they wait for reinforcement of soldiers, weapons, food, and other supplies. The AA last December declared that their fighters had captured the important Western Command military headquarters in Ann township. Prior to the seizure of the Western Command, one of 14 strategic commands across Myanmar, the AA fighters occupied a number of military bases and police stations in the Arakan region. The Northeastern Command, another tactical headquarters in Lashio in northern Shan State fell to the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) last August.

Both the AA and MNDAA are conducting anti-junta operations under the banner of the ‘Three Brotherhood Alliance’ along with the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA). Termed ‘Operation 1027,’ the offensive was launched in late 2023. Although the TNLA and MNDAA recently announced a ceasefire following intervention by China, the AA have continued their offensive, as have many other ethnic groups and resistance forces including the Kachin Independence Army, Karen National Union, Chin National Front, People’s Defense Forces and the National Unity Government. According to a Burmese source in Yangon, the resistance groups have gained control of nearly 148 townships, about 45 percent of the total, leaving only 105 under the junta’s authority, with 78 facing relentless offensives from various anti-junta forces.

Across Myanmar, the rebels, known as the National Unity Government, and their ethnic allies are closing in on more cities and weapons factories vital to the military. China, which has billions of dollars invested in the country, is trying to prop up the junta, known as the State Administration Council, which overthrew a democratically elected national government in February 2021, as it continues to flail.

After losing more than 200 military battalion headquarters and important military bases along with more than 750 frontline outposts to the rebels, junta soldiers are now conducting indiscriminate airstrikes, artillery shelling and drone attacks on various populated areas, eyewitnesses say. Many villages and urban localities have been set on fire, with more than 3.5 million people displaced due to continuous armed conflicts and violence and are facing acute food, medical and other logistic crises.

In many relief camps, military authorities have prevented the distribution of essential commodities among the affected families. Currently, aid agencies say, more than 20 million of Myanmar’s 54.1 million people including minors and elders are in growing need of humanitarian assistance. According to the United Nations World Food Program, 15 million people may face hunger in Myanmar by the year's end.

Khin Ohmar, a Burmese human rights activist, told Asia Sentinel that arbitrary military operations comprising more than 3,000 airstrikes on populated areas had killed more than 6,225 people including 710 children and 1,350 women, although actual numbers may be higher as they can’t be authenticated in rural areas. At least 28,000 people have been arrested and nearly 21,000 political prisoners including the Nobel laureate democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi and former president Win Myint remain under military custody. Large numbers of elected representatives, pro-democracy activists, writer-journalists, artists and civilians are being imprisoned for opposing the military regime.

Speaking from an undisclosed location, Ms Ohmar, who leads an active advocacy group called Progressive Voice, criticized the junta for compelling young people to join the forces to die on the military front lines. Since the junta’s forced conscription started in February 2023, the military continues recruiting, even snatching from the streets, buses and planes as well as residences to deploy against the resistance forces, Ohmar said, striving to recruit 5,000 conscripts per batch. The junta is now said to be on its ninth batch although the exact number of forced conscripts remains unclear.

The trouble-torn Rakhine State supports many billion-dollar projects, sponsored by both China and India. Beijing continues nurturing oil and gas pipelines project from Rakhine to Kunming province and also pushing aggressively for the Belt and Road Initiative in the region. China is intensifying its investments under the economic corridor, hydropower, connectivity and Kyaukpyu deep seaport project, and has moved strategically to attempt to engage both the junta and rebel groups with an aim to ensure their business interests.

Lately, New Delhi has also begun to engage with the opposition groups while maintaining relations with the junta to counter Chinese influence while generating India-supported missions including the Kaladan project. Some Burmese ethnic groups were invited to India for interactions several months ago. The meeting with an AA delegation in New Delhi was reportedly productive, if the foreign ministry officials are to be believed. Another round of discussions was organized in Bangkok.

The Yangon-based Indian Ambassador Abhay Thakur also visited Sittwe in mid-January to review operations at the port. The junta-controlled media outlet Global New Light of Myanmar reported that he conveyed to the Rakhine State government about New Delhi’s hope for an early return to peace and stability.