New Indonesian President’s Formidable Job
Mercurial Prabowo to continue Jokowi’s policies?
By: Ainur Rohmah
Defense Minister and onetime general Prabowo Subianto, set to take office as Indonesia's eighth president on October 20 with more than 96 million votes, faces an intensifying rivalry between China and the United States, two of the country’s critical investment and trading partners. Well before taking office, Prabowo spent the eight-month interregnum on a diplomatic treadmill, holding more than 80 meetings with officials from 38 countries including the United States, China, Russia, Turkey, Australia and Malaysia in an apparent commitment to raising his nation’s profile on the world stage. Indicating his intention to set a balanced foreign policy, seven of those meetings were with US officials, and six with Chinese ones.
A wide array of observers and political analysts will be watching to see how far he veers away from the ambitious development agenda set by his departing predecessor Joko Widodo, particularly over the former president’s cherished new national administrative capital Nusantara, rising far behind schedule from the jungles of Kalimantan on the island of Borneo. He has set his own ambitious goals, including a US$30 million free meal school program and a grandiose US$60 billion seawall protecting Jakarta from rising seas and groundwater subsidence that has been derided by engineers as useless.
Getting a running start, he has already briefed ministerial and state agency candidates on his priorities including geopolitics, economic strategy, and anti-corruption. He has announced the formation of a huge 108-member government estimated to consist of 44 to 48 ministries including political party leaders, entrepreneurs, bureaucrats, celebrities, and religious figures despite statutes which specify a 34-member group, defending the expansion from critics calling it a pork-barrel cabinet, saying it is necessary to unify the country and accomplish his goals.
The 73-year-old Prabowo is considered mercurial, dating back to his days as head of Indonesia’s special forces when he was accused of involvement in the disappearance of activists during the tumult leading to Suharto's ouster in May 1998, raising concerns today over his commitment to democracy although he has allayed those fears somewhat by reaching out to opposition party leaders and diplomats. He was fired from the military and ventured into business in Jordan and Germany before returning to Indonesia to establish the Gerindra Party in 2008. His business interests span sectors including palm oil, oil and gas, mining, forestry, agriculture, pulp, and fisheries. His net worth is reported to be Rp2.04 trillion (US$155.4 million), according to data released by the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK).
Domestically, he inherits an economy from former President Widodo that is projected by the World Bank to average healthy 5.1 percent growth to 2026. He has announced he wants to push that to 8 percent despite headwinds from a subsiding commodity boom, increased volatility in food and energy prices, and rising geopolitical uncertainty. It seems an unlikely goal although his announced reappointment of the highly-respected Sri Mulyani Indrawati as finance minister along with three of her deputies will be welcomed by domestic and international investors given her extensive track record and ability to maintain market confidence, particularly on an international scale.
As Asia Sentinel reported on October 2, the middle class, crucial to support the nation's economy, has shrunk by nearly 10 million members over the past five years, raising concerns it will hinder growth in Southeast Asia’s largest country, with a population of 284 million. Maturing debt and high-interest obligations due between 2025 and 2029 are troubling, with debt by the end of Jokowi's term reaching Rp8,353 trillion (US$539.7 billion), piled on by the outgoing president’s ambitious infrastructure spending, alongside a widening state budget deficit.
Prabowo says he plans to eradicate poverty in two years, another ambitious goal that will be difficult to meet. The country’s bureau of statistics put the number of poor at 9.01 percent in March, numbering 25.22 million people. Over the past two decades, the country has actually been de-industrializing in the face of Jokowi’s attempts to take over control of its wealth of natural resources and move into upstream processing. Manufacturing’s contribution to GDP has continued to decline from 20 percent-plus to 18-19 percent.
The incoming chief executive is solidly behind Jokowi’s aspirations to take control from foreign interests over Indonesia’s vast mineral wealth, among the richest in the world, to make Indonesia a processing powerhouse although nearly all of its new nickel processing, for instance, has passed into the hands of mainland Chinese interests.
One of the country’s biggest problems is endemic corruption, hindering both foreign and domestic investment and in effect placing a tax on almost every interaction with government. It ranks 115th of 180 countries in Transparency International’s world perception rankings. Prabowo has announced he intends to fight endemic corruption by raising civil service salaries although what the country needs is a wholesale cleanup of its judiciary and law enforcement agencies. A massive police scandal two years ago didn’t result in significant reform, and the emasculation at the hands of the former president of the Corruption Eradication Commission is hardly a harbinger of future cleanup.
Alongside Prabowo, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, Jokowi’s eldest son, will be inaugurated as vice president for the 2024-2029 term, raising one of Indonesia’s biggest questions, and that is how much of the new administration will be Prabowo’s, and how much Jokowi’s. Jokowi loyalists in the new cabinet include the current minister of communication and information Budi Arie Setiadi, minister of Marine Affairs and Fisheries Sakti Wahyu Trenggono, Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto, Minister of State Secretary Pratikno, Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Bahlil Lahadalia, police chief Listyo Sigit Prabowo, and Deputy Minister of Agrarian Affairs and Spatial Planning Raja Juli Antoni.
Throughout his political career, Prabowo has experienced a long series of defeats, losing in the 2004 presidential election during the Golkar Party convention; in 2009 while serving as the running mate to Megawati Sukarnoputri; and twice at the hands of Joko Widodo in both 2014 and 2019. He hails from a technocratic family. His father, Soemitro Djojohadikusumo, was a prominent economist and politician with the Indonesian Socialist Party, serving as Minister of Finance during Sukarno's era and as Minister of Trade during Suharto's. In May 1983, Prabowo married Siti Hediati Hariyadi, the daughter of President Suharto, and later divorced her. They have one child, Ragowo Hediprasetyo, who has established a career as a designer.
Political analyst Lili Romli from the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) noted that the nomination of professional candidates by political parties is a positive initial step, as ministries should indeed be led by individuals who are qualified in their respective fields. Ujang Komaruddin, a political observer, remarked that Prabowo appears to be quite selective in choosing individuals to assist him in governance, ensuring that they are genuinely experts and competent in their areas. Nevertheless, Ujang said, he perceives a strong element of political accommodation within the cabinet formation.