The Mystery of Arab Disloyalty to Palestine

Trade and security trump support for Palestine

By: Salman Rafi Sheikh

MBS looks the other way

It has been more than a year since Israel began its war on Gaza following Hamas attacks on Israel in October, yet the Arab world – which claims the closet geographical, political, and religious proximity to Palestine – has neither a united front against Israel nor has it taken any step that might push the Western world to cut back its support for Israel’s war. Only if it was 1973, the world might have seen an oil blockade. But no such block exists today even though oil remains the Arab world’s key trade commodity. In short, they have somehow decided not to weaponize their key power. This is where the combined power of the Arab world stands vis-à-vis Iran.

Powerful Arab states, such as the UAE, are not only trading with Israel but states like Saudi Arabi are still open to making a deal with the US to sign The Abraham Accords, the 2020 bilateral agreements signed between Israel and the UAE and between Israel and Bahrain mediated by the Trump administration to recognize Israel in exchange for a defense pact with the US.

As far as the UAE is concerned, it is the only country in the Gulf that reportedly hosts an Israeli ambassador (Israelis had recalled its ambassadors from other Arab states following the Hamas attacks). The key reason for this is, perhaps, the UAE-Israel trade ties. According to data shared by the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics, their trade with the UAE grew last year by 17 percent to reach US$2.95 billion. In the first quarter of 2024, despite the war, trade growth has remained at more than 7 percent. explaining why the UAE is unable – and unwilling – to launch any serious diplomatic push against Israel. All we have seen is a combination of rhetorical statements from the Emirati officials that are meant to put on public display their continuing attachment to the Palestinian question. In other words, while they may have their “eyes” on Palestine, they are certainly “looking” at their own future with Israel (and beyond).

In fact, the UAE is making money out of this war. As a report by the International Crisis Group shows, Israel’s economy has contracted by almost 20 percent since the start of the war. Amid this, investment by the UAE has become a crucial source of growth. This is not an exclusive example. Deep trade ties between the Arab world and Israel now exist that are too costly to be reversed. In 2023, trade between Israel and seven Arab states that have normalized ties with Israel broke all previous records to reach US$4 billion, up by almost 16 percent from 2022.

While the war in Gaza has had some impact, it is little relative to the impact the war has left on Israel’s trade with the rest of the world. According to the annual report of Abraham Accords Peace Institute (AAPI), Israel’s trade with the Arab world contracted by 4 percent, while Israel’s trade with the rest of the world contracted by 18 percent. In the fourth quarter of 2023 when the war already begun, Israel’s trade with Egypt jumped 168 percent year on year, from $71 million to $191 million. Trade with Morocco increased 8 percent from $24 million to $26 million.

Therefore, despite wider popular demands across the Muslim world for boycotting Israel and US products and food chains, the reality is the continuous existence of trade ties without any tangible signs of their reversal, or even official boycotts, in the immediate future.

The Arab world, therefore, continues to be an exceptionally important region for Israel’s economy to survive the impact of the war and be able to continue to reproduce itself on a level where it can keep its war machine well-oiled.

Trade aside, geo-political considerations, too, continue to shape Arab ties with Israel. This is most clearly evident in the fact that, despite Israel deliberately destroying the population (rather than Hamas) in Gaza, states like Saudi Arabia have still not stepped away from the possibility of signing The Abraham Accords in exchange for a security pact with Washington. The only reason why the deal has not happened is not merely the ongoing genocidal war, but that mutual ground is yet to be found and that finding that ground at this stage has become a little bit more difficult than it was before October 7, 2023. In June, the Wall Street Journal reported that Washington was “close” to finalizing the deal with Israel. If Harris wins the presidential elections in the US, the deal will still be on the table. The victory of Donald Trump will be even better given the nature of his ties with Saudi leaders (as opposed to Biden’s ties with Saudia).

In fact, in the event of Donald Trump winning the elections in the US next month, the basic framework of The Abraham Accords could find itself significantly reinvigorated. Jared Kushner, Donald Trump’s son-in-law and a former top aide and architect of the accords, recently said that “The Abraham Accords remain a crucial pillar of stability in the Middle East”. If these accords are a source of stability, the logical policy action would be to find ways to expand them. States like Saudi might be anticipating this more than a quick end to the war on Gaza.

Because these considerations related to trade and security continue to deeply matter, whatever diplomatic efforts Arab states have made have been of little consequence and/or completely meaningless. Immediately after the war broke out, the Arab League delegate visited China for support. Beijing extended the same. In reality, and unlike the US, Beijing carries no leverage on Israel that it could have used to push to end the war. Therefore, going to Beijing for support was neither realistic nor productive. It was merely symbolic, with Arab states fully cognizant of its true nature as something for public consumption and maintain a positive image. Cosmetic exercises like seeking Chinese support or passing resolutions from the toothless platform of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) tend to reinforce the existing pattern of using ‘soft power’ and avoiding ‘hard power’ (drawn from possessing oil).

But doing these cosmetic efforts also mattered for the Arab states to show so-called solidarity with the Palestinians. Again, the entire purpose of pushing the question of ‘humanitarian aid’ to Gaza is to help mask other things that these are not doing (not using their biggest weapon) or want to do (expand ties with Israel) in the future.