Myanmar's Exiled Government Slammed for Inertia

Rebels plagued by wildly uneven leadership capacity, lackluster diplomacy

By: David Scott Mathieson

Physician Tayzar San says get it together

Myanmar’s rebel government, the National Unity Government (NUG), has been subject to years of criticism for its uneven performance, with its 20-month-old Operation 1027" offensive stalled in some places although it is keeping up momentum in others, especially Karen State, where it has rolled up numerous bases controlling almost all of the border with Thailand. Yet perhaps the most trenchant and impactful criticism was issued recently by the prominent civil society leader, Tayzar San, a highly respected physician whose criticism has attracted widespread attention and support, reflecting growing frustration with the rebel government.

Despite rebel aspirations, the State Administration Council (SAC) is stage-managing multiple events to showcase its stability, such as a recent ‘Peace Forum’ in the administrative capital Naypyidaw. The economy is in a shambles but hasn’t led to widespread urban instability. Militarily, the army is not just holding on in many places, but managing to regain territory lost in the past two years of fighting. And talk of elections may provoke refrains of illegitimacy, but for many of Myanmar’s neighbors, and not a small measure of domestic constituents, flawed elections that provide a semblance of political solution seeking may be welcome, albeit unenthusiastically.

In a lengthy post on Facebook on July 7, titled “(t)he NUG is in dire need of reform,” Tayzar San laid out systematically several key priorities to make reform reality and triumph over the regime. The first was to recognize the obvious necessity for change in key areas, and he bemoaned the stasis of the NUG and their obtuse attitude to over two years of calls for reforms, from him and many others. One of his arguments addressed legitimacy, stating that after the coup, many organizations formed, including the NUG, the National Unity Consultative Council (NUCC), and the Committee Representing the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (parliament) (CRPH), plus ‘strike committees’ and Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) chapters.

Tayzar San asserts that in the opening years of the rebel effort, often referred to as the ‘Spring Revolution,’ obsession with legitimacy was important. However, in recent years, as the armed struggle has continued, the NUG has failed to expand its capacity to govern on the ground and administer civilian populations. A key element of that is financial management, which came under considerable criticism in the Facebook statement.

A crucial priority he cited was military reform. In the ‘Anya Region’ of Central Myanmar, encompassing parts of Magway, Mandalay, and Sagaing, there are hundreds of People’s Defense Force groups (PDFs) with tens of thousands of armed fighters, many, but not all, who have pledged allegiance to the NUG. There is also a highly confusing armed administrative system called Pa Thone Lone (the 3 Ps): pa-ah-pa (People’s Administration Team), pa-la-pa (People’s Security Team), and pa-kha-pa (People’s Defense Team) reporting to different NUG ministries and with overlapping responsibilities. Tayzar San argued that the PDFs must unify into a regular army, and the 3 Ps reformed into one armed group operating as a ‘People’s Militia.’

The NUG, Tayzar San wrote, “has not yet been able to establish a proper chain of command for this scattered combat force.” The military reform section may have the most impact, as Tayzar San is close to the Mandalay PDF, one of the largest in terms of fighters, equipment, and solid relations with powerful Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs).

Another major point was to improve leadership across the board: the NUG ministry, from foreign affairs to top political positions, is perceived as lacking energy and charisma. The author claimed that “leadership skills, performance, and the strength of organizational and regulatory frameworks are particularly important. For this, it is necessary to make adjustments as necessary to be fully efficient. NUG must adapt and change.”

The Anya Region has been enduring not just Myanmar army air strikes and widespread military arson attacks, but increasing internecine conflict, between the ‘Three P’s’ and PDF’s. His insistence that armed groups observe their ‘Code of Conduct’ and refrain from civilian abuse will resonate. Tayzar San would know this better than anyone. Unlike many NUG leaders, he never sought sanctuary in the West, but stayed in Central Myanmar. The problems he described in his Facebook post are immediate, not abstract.

Tayzar San was a medical doctor who founded the Beautiful Mind Foundation, which opened a library and education center to assist Mandalay’s poorer communities. He was one of the founders of the Yone Kyi Yar Knowledge Foundation, along with other prominent intellectuals, to promote progressive political and social causes. During the major demonstrations in Mandalay following the February 2021 coup, Tayzar San was a fiery public speaker who denounced the military. He fled to the countryside in April as demonstrations were violently suppressed. He has evaded capture or assassination by the SAC and their allies for more than four years, issuing regular statements on social media.

The NUG, NUCC, and CRPH have been beset by erratic messaging, poor policy formulation, wildly uneven leadership capacity, lackluster diplomacy that privileges the West more than prioritizing Asia, and above all, lethargic reform efforts. Deeply worrying too has been the proclivity of these groups to threaten any perceived dissent or challenges, often with legal repercussions or violence. This has fueled widespread resentment.

The NUG’s collective torpor and grating institutional arrogance have resulted in many political actors opting out of participation in revolutionary activities. Prominent Myanmar public intellectuals such as Nang Ying Lao and Nyi Nyi Kyaw have been publicly vocal about the need for the anti-SAC complex to better define its goals and improve leadership capacity. These are often dismissed or downplayed by the NUG’s supporters, who prefer the safe cocoon of ‘imminent victory’ propaganda, much of it peddled by their phalanx of Western advisors and courtiers.

But is Tayzar San’s powerful call for reform too late? The NUG’s reluctance to reform may well be its downfall.

David Scott Mathieson is an independent analyst working on conflict, humanitarian, and human rights issues in Myanmar