By: B A Hamzah

Photo from Exercise Balikatan Facebook page

The unprecedented participation of 1,400 Japanese combat soldiers in the seven-nation Balikatan Exercise 2026, the longstanding annual drill between the Armed Forces of the Philippines and US allies, marks a first for the region and as such demonstrates the newly aggressive foreign policy of Japanese Premier Sanae Takachi, who has already raised hackles in Beijing by asserting that a hypothetical Chinese military attack on Taiwan could constitute a “survival-threatening situation” in the region.

The closing ceremony for the multinational exercise, involving 17,000 personnel from the US, Philippines, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, France, and Japan coincided with the Asean 48th Summit that was also held in the Philippines on May 8. While on paper the purpose is to improve interoperability between the participating militaries, the narratives calling for the destruction of enemy (read China) assets on land, at sea, and in the air, have quietly generated geopolitical ripples throughout the region. The arrival of Japanese troops to join the exercise isn’t quieting those geopolitical ripples. The exercise was concluded just shortly before U.S. President Donald Trump arrived in Beijing to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

Balikatan is touted as a significant event in US-Philippine military relations dating back to when both signed a Mutual Defense Treaty in 1951 prior to the Philippines achieving the status of an archipelagic state in 1982. The Philippines has included the Kalayaan Islands – also known as the West Philippines Sea – as its territories since 1974. China has long contested the Philippine ownership of these territories.

What started as a bilateral arrangement now involves seven other militaries. However, the participation of Japanese soldiers, marks a new beginning in regional geopolitical security dynamics considering Tokyo’s decision to take up arms again. The decision to arm has sent prickly signals to many in the region, especially after Japan raised military expenditure to two percent of GDP, amounting to a US$58 billion defense outlay in the 2026 fiscal year. This makes Japan the third-largest defense spender in the world, after the US and China.

Japan’s participation in Balikatan thus signals that the exercise is evolving from a bilateral alliance drill into a broader strategic alignment of US proxies aimed at countering China, with a newly energized Japan’s participation. Even prior to Takaichi’s ascendancy to the premiership, Japan had been rapidly expanding its defense footprint in Southeast Asia, shifting from a strictly pacifist stance to actively partnering with regional nations. This buildup centers on securing the First Island Chain and countering Chinese maritime expansion in the South China Sea. Tokyo’s strategy includes relaxed arms exports, security pacts, and joint exercises.

While many countries feeling the heat of China’s overpowering presence in the South China Sea welcome Japan’s new activism, however, there are long memories of its invasion and occupation of Southeast Asia from 1941 to 1945 that claimed an estimated 4.4 million civilian lives due to forced labor, famine, and violence. Postwar aid which began in the mid-1950s through war reparations, evolving into massive Official Development Assistance (ODA) and private investments that built foundational infrastructure and fostered deep economic interdependence with ASEAN hasn’t completely erased concerns that a remilitarised Japan could provide a pretext for a new round of defense spending and procurement.

The objections generally don’t run to governments. While Beijing frequently objects, governments in Southeast Asia generally extend a welcome, often viewing Japan as a vital, stabilizing partner and a regional counterweight. The big concern is how much Japan’s growing military presence raises the temperature across an increasingly volatile region. The 2026 Balikatan military exercise itself can no longer be described as an ordinary conventional military training exercise. It has evolved into a rehearsal preparation for a coordinated conventional warfare against China’s military bases in the South China Sea and a planned rescue of Taiwan by the US and its allies in the event of a Chinese attempt to invade the island, the consequences of which could engulf the entire region into a political quagmire. If a real conflict were to happen, it could hasten the collapse of the US military preeminence, already imperiled by the inconsistent foreign policy of the Trump administration.

Such a conflict would also fracture Asean security architecture and undermine its importance as a regional institution which has been experiencing internal fissures even before Trump imposed tariffs and sanctions on the member states more than a year ago. The ongoing tensions in West Asia that led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted energy supplies across Southeast Asia exposing their vulnerabilities. Countries like Indonesia and the Philippines have taken unpopular steps to mitigate dependence on oil from Iran whose rising prices have put a strain on government popularity in many other Asean member countries. Many view the unpopular policies as necessary to contain public dissatisfaction and protect regime legitimacy.

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr was the first in the region to declare a state of national emergency after local diesel and petrol prices more than doubled since the war in Iran broke out on 28 February. Filipinos are generally unhappy with government policy, with some civil society groups staging strikes against the presidency. This situation has complicated the fragile political situation as the country prepares for the next general election in June 2028.

The war in West Asia has also forced Jakarta to navigate the global power rivalry as it seeks to ensure stable oil supplies amidst a chaotic economic downturn marked by weak currency, widening fiscal deficit, rising unemployment, and capital flight which could undermine the authoritarian leadership of President Prabowo Subianto. The decision that looks like it is to curry favour with Washington by giving a blanket overflight clearance (later denied by Departmen Luar Negeri) to the US military has unsettled many in the region.

Some believe the overflight arrangement is in exchange for a highly confidential defense arrangement with Washington that has not gone down well with some critics in Indonesia. The defence arrangement with the US has also raised eyebrows in Beijing which funded the construction of the Jakarta-Bandung High Speed Railway, a flagship infrastructure project under China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

By itself, the Balikatan Exercise doesn’t change the geopolitical equation in this part of the world just yet. However, over time, the involvement of external parties at the time of rising tensions between the US and China that could clash over Taiwan is unsettling. Behind closed doors, several ASEAN policymakers worry that Exercise Balikatan has evolved beyond traditional alliance military exercises into a form of operational rehearsal against China, which does not augur well with regional geopolitical dynamics.

B A Hamzah comments regularly on Southeast Asian military and diplomatic affairs.

Asia Sentinel

Japan Extends SEA Military Presence Via…