Israel's Doha Bombing Swings Favor to Beijing over Washington
That’s US diplomacy in ruins
By: Salman Rafi Sheikh
Washington is fast losing its friends all over the world. Instead of learning from its waning power, the US stood idle last week as Israeli missiles struck the heart of Doha, a US ally hosting Washington’s largest military base in the region, targeting Hamas leadership and jolting the regional order and existing threat perceptions.
No American-supplied defense systems intercepted the attack. No last-minute calls to Jerusalem stopped the strike. In its moment of truth, Washington failed, not just to de-escalate tensions between two allies, but to uphold the illusion that its security guarantees still mean something.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s subsequent blunt warning that he will target any state harboring Hamas, implicitly naming countries like Turkey and Egypt, has only deepened anxiety across the region. Eli Cohen, a member of Israel’s security cabinet and the energy minister, declared, “Hamas cannot sleep peacefully anywhere in the world.”
When asked whether that included Istanbul and Ankara, he repeated: “Anywhere in the world.” He added, “We have proved that we are capable of accurately reaching any location.” In a separate interview with the Israeli news website Ynet, another cabinet minister, Ze’ev Elkin, stated: “We will pursue them and settle accounts with them wherever they are.”
This rhetoric is particularly problematic for US partners like Saudi Arabia, currently engaged in sensitive defense negotiations with Washington involving security guarantees and defense cooperation. For them, the message is loud and clear: when it matters most, America does not show up. What is also clear is that America, in any future event involving Israel and any Arab, Gulf, or Middle Eastern state, will choose Israel. As such, nothing significant emerged from the Qatari Prime Minister’s meeting with Trump after the attack.
Here lies the acute dilemma staring the US directly in the face. For decades, Washington (and Israel) propagated the narrative that Iran and its proxy militias were the real threats to the Gulf. That threat perception is no longer valid. For Gulf states, the new and growing threat comes from Israel, and they know it. Relying on Washington for security, therefore, is not only foolish but increasingly dangerous.
In this context, although symbolic posturing at this stage, Qatar is hosting an Arab-Islamic summit in Doha to devise a collective response to Israeli aggression. The US is notably absent.
For the Gulf, the threat is not simply military or strategic. If Gulf monarchies fail to prevent future Israeli attacks, they face major domestic risks. Any further strikes will expose regime vulnerabilities and erode their political legitimacy, potentially giving way to internal political challenges. This is one key reason why all Gulf states immediately united in their condemnation of the Israeli strike. That included even the UAE, one of the key signatories of the Abraham Accords, which normalized ties with Israel.
In fact, Abu Dhabi went a step further, casting doubt on the Washington-backed “peace” plan for the region. Lana Nusseibeh, the UAE’s Assistant Minister for Political Affairs, warned that any annexation of occupied West Bank territory would constitute a “red line” for Abu Dhabi. She said such a move would “severely undermine the vision and spirit” of the Abraham Accords, adding that Israeli actions would “end the pursuit of regional integration” and jeopardize the broadly shared consensus on a two-state solution. For states like the UAE, therefore, pulling back from the Abraham Accords is very much on the table.
What is also on the table is a serious rethinking of relations with the US. Washington failed to prevent the attack on Qatar, even though Trump chose Qatar, alongside Saudi Arabia and the UAE, for his maiden presidential trip. Trade deals worth trillions of US dollars were signed during that visit, and the Qatari government even “gifted” a US$400 million jet to Trump himself. None of this translated into tangible benefits for Qatar last week.
In fact – and this should come as no surprise – China issued remarks directly blaming the US for its failure to maintain peace and balance in the region. Beijing pointed to what it called a “severely unbalanced stance” by certain outside major powers on Middle East issues. While China didn’t name any specific country, the implication was clear. It urged these powers to act responsibly, prioritize regional peace and stability, avoid fueling tensions, and contribute constructively toward a ceasefire.
Over the past few years, China has developed a vast economic footprint in the Middle East. The current crisis presents an opportunity for it to expand its strategic and military presence as well. Let’s be clear: China and Gulf states already share areas of cooperation in the defense sector. For instance, Qatar possesses Chinese short-range ballistic missiles (SY-400). Saudi Arabia and China signed a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” in 2023, which formally elevated cooperation across multiple dimensions, including defense.
Though this military cooperation has so far remained marginal, Gulf states are increasingly aware of the benefits of closer defense ties with China. These benefits were illustrated when Pakistan, using Chinese technology, shot down Indian jets. Unlike US-supplied weapons systems, Chinese systems offer significantly more operational freedom.
Gulf states are as familiar as any other US client states with the constraints that come with American-made weapons. China, by contrast, does not impose end-use restrictions. The UAE, for example, understands the strategic difference when it comes to defense purchases. The US ultimately chose not to sell the UAE F-35s, not only to maintain Israel’s military edge in the region, but also out of fear that China could “steal” the jet’s technology.
China, on the other hand, has a far more open posture when it comes to selling or co-developing defense technology. Its military ties with Pakistan, including the co-development of the JF-17 Thunder jet, offer a model that Gulf states can draw from in their pursuit of greater strategic autonomy from external constraints.
For Gulf states, China offers an ideal example of how to build a domestic military-industrial complex that enhances national defense capacity and military preparedness. Pakistan and Russia also remain viable options for diversifying away from US-based defense systems of all kinds.
Thus, the Israeli strike on Doha did more than shatter the illusion of Gulf security; it punctured the very foundation of America’s strategic credibility in the region. As Israeli threats expand and Washington chooses paralysis, Gulf states can no longer afford the comfort of historical alignments or the illusion of enduring guarantees. A new security paradigm is being forced upon them—one in which autonomy, diversification, and strategic recalibration are not optional but essential for survival.
And in this recalibration, it is China, not the US, that appears to be offering the tools, partnerships, and strategic space necessary to build a future less vulnerable to betrayal and more rooted in sovereign capability. For Washington, the question is no longer whether its influence is declining, but whether the Trump administration has the self-awareness to understand why it is happening and what it must do to reverse the damage before it is too late.
Dr. Salman Rafi Sheikh is a longtime commentator on diplomatic affairs for Asia Sentinel. He is an Assistant Professor of Politics at the Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS).