Indonesian President’s Clout Fades at the End of His Reign

Scheme to install younger son as Central Java governor stalls

Son and dad. Photo from Instagram @kaesang

Indonesian President Joko Widodo, whose term ends on October 20, is discovering that despite acclaim as one of Asia’s most popular leaders over the past decade, power is ephemeral. Now his youngest son, Kaesang Pangarep, is under scrutiny for taking an ill-considered private jet flight from a powerful entrepreneur to Philadelphia with his wife on holiday. Last month, the House of Representatives backed away under public outcry from a plan to amend regulations barring candidates under age 30 for the upcoming Central Java gubernatorial election so the 29-year-old Kaesang, with almost no political experience, could run.

Even before the February 14 general election that brings his handpicked successor Prabowo Subianto to office in little more than a month after an eight-month interregnum, the president, known universally as Jokowi, has worked assiduously to preserve his clout with a sustained flurry of political machinations that include in effect taking over Golkar, the nation's second-largest party, and trying to make it impossible for any significant opposition to emerge to blunt the power of his alliance with Prabowo as well as eliminating members of arch-foe Megawati Sukarnoputri’s Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) from the cabinet. He also engineered the successful nomination of his older son Gibran as Prabowo’s running mate. The attempts to preserve his control are costing Jokowi, who was praised as a new kind of leader for Indonesia during his decade in power.

On August 24, President-elect Prabowo seemed to offer not-so-oblique criticism, saying that politics was necessary to improve people’s welfare, but that politicians and political parties who ask for the mandate for power must put the people above themselves. “We come to the people [in elections] to ask for the people’s mandate,” he was quoted as saying in local media. “That’s what we do as political parties. But some have an endless thirst for power. And, with the powers [bestowed upon them], seek to pursue interests outside of the people’s. This will disrupt or harm a nation.”

A dynamic figure who played a major role in reorganizing Indonesian politics and worked to build infrastructure including his troubled new capital city Nusantara, the outgoing president remains popular and influential. But during a NasDem Party Congress on August 25, Jokowi expressed his disappointment with those who had eagerly sought his attention during his two presidential terms but who are now abandoning him. "They usually come in droves, but once I am about to leave, they all leave me as well," he lamented.

Demonstrations erupt

Widespread demonstrations erupted last month opposing the plan to revise the Regional Election Law to allow Kaesang to beat regulations barring underage candidates from the governorship as an attempt by the president to undermine democracy. Amid the controversy, it was discovered that Kaesang, with his wife Erina Gudono, had traveled to the United States on a private Gulfstream 650E jet owned by a high-ranking official of SEA Limited, the company overseeing popular e-commerce platforms Shopee and Garena. Critics calculated the cost of the 17-hour one-way trip to Philadelphia trip aboard the jet at US$556,305.

That not only implicates the couple but brings the president himself into the spotlight due to his alleged connections with the e-commerce platform. In early 2021, he openly condemned foreign e-commerce companies dominating the Indonesian market by selling cheap imported goods, urging the public to reject foreign products. His criticism appeared to ebb after Shopee and Garena established important hubs in Solo, Jokowi’s hometown, later that year. Garena Online also became the main sponsor of the Persis Solo football club, known to be owned by Kaesang Pangarep.

a-Shoppee we will go. Photo from Tempo

The social media scrutiny of Erina's posts has led to calls from anticorruption activists from Indonesia Corruption Watch (ICW) and the Indonesian Anti-Corruption Society (MAKI) for the KPK to investigate potential allegations of gratification. KPK Vice Chairman Nurul Ghufron said Kaesang has no legal obligation to clarify the allegations as he isn’t a public official, to which MAKI Coordinator Boyamin Saiman responded that gratification can also be received through family members or close associates of public officials, not necessarily directly by the officials themselves. Echoing Boyamin, Agus Sunaryanto, Deputy Coordinator of ICW, pointed out that even though Kaesang is not a public official, he has connections with those in power.

Feri Amsari, a constitutional law expert from Andalas University, expressed skepticism that the KPK would seriously investigate the case. Nonetheless, the allegations against Kaesang could serve as an entry point to uncover the true nature of the Jokowi family, which became famous for the image of simplicity and non-involvement in business politics or other interests.

Stiff upper lip

Jokowi has kept a strict public silence in the face of the outcry although many have linked Jokowi’s statement of abandonment to Prabowo’s silence. But three days after Jokowi expressed his concerns, Prabowo denied any deterioration in his relationship with the outgoing president, expressing his sadness over the ongoing criticism and reiterating his support. “Thank you for your service, Mr. Jokowi,” he said. “ Don’t doubt it, sir. If Mr. Jokowi is criticized, the entire Gerindra Party feels it. We stand behind you.”

Political analyst Ujang Komarudin from Al Azhar University Indonesia said the fading support for Jokowi's interests is due to the president's limited remaining time in office. "Jokowi is already being abandoned. He has lost his prestige, dignity, and influence," he said. Rather than enduring public criticism alongside Jokowi, the legislature chose to save itself by not pursuing the revision of the Regional Election Law.

The current situation is vastly different from the previous presidential election when Jokowi’s other son, Gibran Rakabuming, was able to run successfully for vice president through a revision of the law by the Constitutional Court. “At that time, Jokowi still had a long tenure, so his influence was very strong. Additionally, political parties needed Jokowi’s support to win the presidential election. These factors are no longer felt by the political parties today,” he explained.

Anies revitalized

As sharp criticism continues to be directed at Jokowi and his family, former presidential candidate Anies Baswedan, the president’s rival, is increasingly garnering public sympathy. Although Anies recently lost the opportunity to be renominated for Jakarta governor when Megawati reportedly backed away from a PDI-P seal of approval, he is said to be planning to establish a new party or civil organization. “If gathering all the enthusiasm for change, which is increasingly felt, needs to become a movement, then building a new organization or party might be the way forward,” Anies said in a video posted on his YouTube channel. In another blow to the president, the constitutional court later lowered the barrier in terms of party representation for the nomination of candidates for regional elections, enabling Anies to re-enter the Jakarta gubernatorial race after all in November. Anies appeared to have been blocked by the previous law, which required parties to have a 20 percent representation in their regional assemblies to nominate a candidate. 

Although still in the planning stage, many have expressed both support and skepticism. Aisah Putri Budiarti, a political analyst from the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), believes that the former Jakarta governor, whose term ended in 2022, will need not only social capital such as popularity and public support to establish a political party but also substantial financial backing. To participate in elections, a political party must have organizational structures at the provincial, regency/municipality, and district levels. Additionally, to remain relevant in parliament, parties must compete to surpass the 4 percent parliamentary threshold. Despite this, Anies is considered to have strong social capital to become a key figure and attract public support. In the 2024 presidential election, the Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar pair received around 40.9 million votes, or 24.9 percent of the total.