Crisis Deepens in the South China Sea

Marcos needs other options than confrontation with Beijing

By: Viswa Nathan

Photo from Philippine Navy

When Chinese soldiers on June 17 boarded a Philippine vessel heading to Ayungin Shoal in the Spratly Islands to replenish food and medicine to soldiers manning the derelict warship Sierra Madre, which remains beached there, it sent a shudder across the world, heightening the specter of war. Washington condemned China over what the Philippines called an "intentional high-speed ramming" by the Chinese Coast Guard, with several Filipino sailors injured in the confrontation, and with business interests in Manila beginning to grow acutely skittish.

The supply mission has been going on for 25 years since Manila deliberately stranded the dilapidated WWII-era LST-class tank landing craft on the submerged shoal in 1999 to stake its claim. But China revised its Coast Guard law this month as Beijing came to suspect that the mission also carried construction material to repair the dilapidated landing craft in was described as violation of promises given by two previous Philippine presidents. Under the new rules, any non-China vessel plying the waters of the South China Sea without Beijing’s clearance will be arrested although, officials said, the Philippines may continue delivering humanitarian supplies with advance notification to Chinese authorities.

The Sierra Madre. Photo from CNN

It is a condition that Manila can’t accept as it infringes on its rights over its territorial waters and exclusive economic zone as defined in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which China refuses to acknowledge, claiming the entire 3.5 million sq km body of water. Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro said the Philippine armed forces would resist "China's dangerous and reckless behavior," which "contravenes their statements of good faith and decency." 

Five Coast Guard vessels plus 18 vessels belonging to Beijing’s “maritime militia,” supplemented further by two Chinese naval vessels and a military helicopter, appeared at Ayungin to confront five Philippine vessels, according to Coast Guard Commodore Jay Tarriela on June 19.

Nonetheless, despite the level of confrontation, Manila’s response to China’s assertive actions has so far been cautious. Since the Chinese Coast Guard began assaulting Sierra Madre supply missions with water cannons and laser beams, there have been demands from some lawmakers and the public that Philippine vessels be equipped with the necessary tools to respond tit-for-tat. But President Ferdinand Marcos Jr has taken a non-violent approach: we will face their threat, but we will not strike back. He might have come to regret that he provoked Beijing with his gung-ho declaration during his first State of the Nation Address in July 2022 that he won’t preside over any process that will abandon even one square inch of Philippine territory to any foreign power. It was arguably aimed at those denouncing him for realigning with Washington.

But Beijing read it differently, particularly following Marcos’s statement four months later to the visiting US Vice President Kamala Harris, that he doesn’t see a future for the Philippines “that does not include the United States” and three months later granting four military bases for Washington to station its soldiers and warheads, in addition to five granted earlier under a controversial Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) that the late president Benigno Aquino III had concluded with the US in 2014.

A line was drawn, and the die was cast for potential confrontation.

Marcos’s reformed mood was reflected in the statements his executive secretary Lucas Bersamin made at a press conference following the June 17 incident. The incident, Bersamin said, might have resulted from “a misunderstanding or an accident,” and it could easily be resolved very soon. “If China wants to work with us, we can work with China.”

Would Beijing take the initiative Bersamin expects? It is now the winner as it has foiled Manila sending supplies to Sierra Madre and captured the supplies previously airdropped. Besides, for Beijing, Marcos’s reformed mood seems deceptive. Manila has been consistently publicizing every South China Sea incident across the world through video clips to gain sympathy and damage China’s image.

A well-informed government source speaking on the condition of anonymity stressed that the South China Sea tension stems from “China’s intransigence and assertive southward leap” and its refusal to comply with the verdict of the UN-established International Court of Justice (ICJ). It, the source said, posed a question significant to all United Nations members: How to deal with a fellow member that will not follow a treaty the world body has signed and ratified. It needs to be raised low and clear across the world.

In its 479-page July 2016 unanimous ruling on a Philippine petition, the ICJ said unequivocally that China breached the UNCLOS, which defines that a seaside nation has control over 392.6 kilometers of sea from its low waterline (12 nautical miles or 22.2 km as territorial waters, and 200 nautical miles or 370.4 km beyond the territorial waters as exclusive economic zone). UNCLOS has been ratified by 164 member states, plus the 27-nation European Union, the Cook Islands and Niue, and Palestine, which sits in the UN General Assembly as an observer. China and the Philippines signed the Convention in December 1982; the Philippines ratified it in May 1984 and China in June 1996.

The ICJ said that when the director-general of the department of treasury and law at the Chinese ministry of foreign affairs was asked about China’s nine-dash line border demarcation in the South China Sea, the official replied that China’s sovereignty and relevant rights were formed throughout the long course of history and have been maintained by the Chinese government; the nine-dash line was shown in China’s official map in 1948, and no state has questioned its legitimacy for a long time. However, the ICJ was firm in its ruling. UNCLOS, it said, superseded any historic right or other sovereign rights or jurisdiction “in excess of the limits imposed therein.”

Ayungin, and Scarborough Shoal, which China has occupied since April 2012, lie within the area UNCLOSE grants to the Philippines –Ayungin 194 km from its Palawan province, and Scarborough 220 km from Luzon province.

The informed source speaking on the condition of anonymity said the ICJ ruling is binding on member states, and the world body must act “to compel China into line and preserve peace.” The UN General Assembly, which voted in 1971 to admit the People’s Republic of China – thus evicting the National Republic of China, a founding member of the UN – also has the power, the source pointed out, to penalize a member, even expel from the world body, for any act that threatens world peace. “China is an indisputable subject for such action,” the source stressed.

Even so, who will take the initiative to bell the cat in the name of world peace? Even among the Philippines’ fellow Asean members that have claims in the South China Sea in conflict with China, only Vietnam has asked Beijing to respect the ICJ ruling. All others, except Cambodia, which stands with China, sit on the fence offering mere lip service about avoiding any action that might escalate tension. They, like many other nations, are heavily indebted to Beijing for trade and aid, therefore won’t demand that Beijing follow the rule of law, said a Filipino academic, also speaking on the condition of anonymity.

The source points out that the Belt-and-Road policy that China’s ambitious leader Xi Jinping initiated was more to spread Beijing’s influence across the globe than to help the ailing economies of the South. “With money and military muscle, he is determined to get his way,” the academician said. So the crucial question that UN members, particularly democratic countries, should consider is whether they will take the high moral and legal ground, ignoring economic advantage.

China has achieved its goal. None of the Philippine vessels carrying supplies to Sierra Madre this month could reach their destination. Last month, the PLA Coast Guard seized provisions Manila airdropped over Ayungin.

Marcos’s passive mood speaks of a slow realization that the US-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) can serve, at best, only as a deterrent to prevent attack on the Philippines. The crisis calls for third-party mediation. At a banquet honoring the visiting Indonesian President Joko Widodo in early January, Marcos said he would knock on Widodo’s door “whenever I feel the need” for assistance. This could well be the time. It is uncertain if Indonesia, which has remained studiously neutral, would answer.

Viswa Nathan is Asia Sentinel’s Philippine correspondent