China’s Xi Visits North Korea Amid Concerns Kim Drifts Closer To Moscow

North’s expanding nuke arsenal a growing concern

By: Shim Jae Hoon

Chinese President Xi Jinping begins a two-day state visit to Pyongyang today amid concerns North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un is drifting ever closer to Moscow while continuing to expand his nuclear arsenal, which South Korean officials say can now produce five or six atomic bombs a year.

In a note of defiance clearly aimed at Beijing before Xi’s arrival, the Kim regime announced that a new underground nuclear fusion plant has been put into operation, which it hopes will produce an “exponential” amount of nuclear fusion material. While on the surface neither China nor Russia is directly responsible for Kim’s expanding nuclear program, his growing nuclear capability is clearly becoming a global concern, especially for East Asia where Japan and South Korea must feel the horror of Pyongyang’s capability.

On the surface, Xi’s state visit marks the 65^th anniversary of the signing of the China-North Korea Treaty of Amity and Mutual Assistance, under which Beijing is obliged to come to the assistance of North Korea in time of war. The treaty’s importance was affirmed by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi during his April visit to Pyongyang. He described the Sino-North Korean relations as that “forged in blood” and “indestructible.” The emphasis placed on bilateral ties has waned in recent years, with the Kim regime steadily drifting towards Russia. North Korea, in the last two years, has sent millions of artillery shells to Russia’s war against Ukraine, with 14,000 North Korean troops fighting in the Kursk region at the cost of 5,000 to 6,000 casualties.

But the Pyongyang regime doesn’t mind participating in the war in Europe so long as it gets hefty military aid programs, including the latest continental ballistic missiles and warships.

While China remains a major source of commercial trade and food aid, Russia provides precious foreign exchange and the latest weapon technology at a time of utter isolation in North Korea.

Kim is in no mood to worry about international censure stemming from its relations with Russia. Its soldiers paraded proudly among Russian troops marching to celebrate the last World War II Victory Day ceremony in Moscow.

But Beijing remains clearly concerned by Pyongyang’s expanding military ties with Russia with which both China and North Korea share border. In exchange for the contribution of combat troops to the Ukrainian theater, Moscow has reopened a significant flow of economic aid to North Korea, on top of space-age weapon systems including satellite-level technology, advanced missiles, and even talks on the provision of nuclear-fueled submarines.

Indeed, the day after the announcement of Xi’s visit, Kim struck a note of defiance by announcing his plan to build a 10,000-ton destroyer and unspecified undersea weapons, without giving details. That will be in addition to the 5,000-ton warship Kim said the regime is launching as part of an overall expansion of the North’s naval power.

China remains clearly concerned over such a dramatic modernization of North Korea’s already significant military arsenal just across its 1,300-km border. According to South Korean Minister of Unification Chung Dong Young, North Korea today is capable of producing five to six nuclear bombs a year. Washington today believes the Kim regime is already holding a stock of about 50 atomic bombs. Kim himself has already presided over four of six underground nuclear tests Pyongyang has so far conducted.

The regime’s main objective today is to develop a full range of continental ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear bombs to the US mainland, with China coming under growing US-South Korean pressure to keep a leash on its neighbor.

For China’s geopolitical concern, Pyongyang’s belligerence comes against the backdrop of Moscow’s expanding ties with a rogue regime. North Korea today not only supplies millions of artillery shells to Moscow’s long war with Ukraine; some 14,000 to 15,000 North Korean troops are said to be fighting in Ukraine on behalf of Russia. Those returning home on rotations bring with them new, technology-oriented warfare training using drones and other sophisticated Russian weapons. In exchange for combat troops, Russia has agreed to provide satellite and submarine technology, reports say.

Another concern on Xi’s mind, according to recent reports, is the completion of a land bridge linking the North Korean city of Hyesan with the Russian border town of Hassan on the entryway to the Vladivostok region. While this facilitates Russia’s supply lines to North Korea in time of war, it can also provide China with an entry to the Sea of Japan, according to analysts here. Reports here say one of Xi’s topics of discussion with Kim will be China’s hope of using this passageway for trade. North Korea shares a 17-km border with Russia.

What concession Kim will ask China for opening this sensitive port borders with Russia is unknown. But Xi, according to China watchers here, is likely to accept more North Korean workers for its manufacturing sector employment, who can send US dollar wages back home. Some of China’s factories in the northeastern region around the Yalu River border areas around Dandong already have a significant number of North Korean “guest workers” running Chinese factories. Xi is also likely to agree to send more Chinese tourists to help Kim generate US dollar income, reports here say.

In Seoul, however, the Lee Jae Myung government is seeking to promote China’s expanding relations with the Kim regime, hoping that wider economic contacts with China will help to promote détente with Seoul. At the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit in South Korea last summer, Lee specifically welcomed any Chinese initiative to relax tensions with North Korea. At the last Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, the US is also known to have asked Xi to help reopen talks with Kim, following up on the three summit-level talks President Trump held with Kim Jong Un in Singapore, Hanoi, and DMZ during his first term in office. In a similar effort to persuade Kim to restart the dialogue process with Washington, Seoul has asked Singapore recently to approach Pyongyang for the resumption of summit-level talks with President Trump.

With Kim’s priority now resting on driving up his nuclear capability in complete isolation, even from China, the likelihood of Kim holding another round of summit with Trump is considered almost nil. Seoul is thus pinning its hope on President Xi’s trip to Pyongyang for another round of persuasion.