China Uses US Chaos to Reset European Ties

As the Trump administration breaks with the EU, China steps in

By: Salman Rafi Sheikh

Right this way, Mr Wang. After you, my dear Olaf

With President Donald Trump’s rearrival in the White House, China is skillfully exploiting Europe’s growing rift with the United States to seek out European leaders willing to step back from the protectionism they began to build during the Biden era to shield themselves against Chinese economic dominance. That the tone is changing both in Beijing and Europe was evident during the many discussions that China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, had during his latest tour to Europe earlier this month.

Wang reminded EU foreign secretary Kaja Kallas that “There is no fundamental conflict of interest or geopolitical conflicts between China and the EU.” Thus the message is loud and clear: China is willing to sort out any outstanding issues, using both bilateral and multilateral channels. In turn, Kallas ensured the EU’s willingness to continue to “dialogue and cooperate” with China.

Wang Yi’s outreach is both timely and a stark contrast to US Vice President JD Vance’s scathing remarks about European countries in the speech he delivered at the February 14-16 Munich security conference. Leading European papers described Vance’s remarks as “disturbing.”

Vance ruled out that the EU was facing any external threats. “What I worry about is the threat from within,” Vance said. He criticized European leaders for being afraid of the voices of their own people, accusing them of imposing “digital censorship.” It was clearly understood that Vance was alluding to the far right, including the AfD in Germany, which traces its origins to Naziism. Vance blistered the EU for not treating the issue of migration as a security matter as the Trump administration is doing. Vance drew a clear line between the EU and the US insofar as the latter does not see the former ‘right’ enough.

Vance later on met with the leader of the AfD, confirming the Trump administration’s preference for the far right. Vance declined to meet with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz despite an invitation. But before Vance delivered his speech, the German president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, had already said in his speech that “the new American administration holds a worldview that is very different from our own. One that shows no regard for established rules, for partnerships or for the trust that has been built over time.” Later, the German chancellor described Vance’s remarks as unacceptable.

Enter China

In the ongoing peace talks between Russia and the US over Ukraine, EU stands completely excluded, as is Ukraine itself. Not only is the EU not present on the table, but talks are taking place in Saudi Arabia, demonstrating both the geographical and political distances that are already there between the US and the EU.

Wang Yi used his speech at the conference to hit where it hurt the most. Ordinarily, one would expect Chinese positions over Ukraine to align with Russia’s. But this was not the case. Wang instead backed EU’s position, saying, “we hope that all parties and stakeholders directly involved participate in the peace talks in due course.” As the war is taking place on European soil, he said, “it is all the more necessary for Europe to play its part for peace, to jointly address the root causes of the crisis, to find a balanced, effective and sustainable security framework, and to achieve long-term peace and stability in Europe.”

Without necessarily risking its ties with Moscow, Beijing is pursuing a purely pragmatic approach informed by realpolitik. By proposing a role for the EU in the talks, Beijing is not necessarily complicating Russia’s positions, for a US decision to withdraw its military support for Ukraine would end the conflict in Russia’s favor whether EU likes it or not. But by taking a pro-EU position, China hopes to only further the transatlantic wedge being created by the Trump administration, ultimately hoping to wean the EU away from the US as much as possible and minimizing chances for a transatlantic alliance to emerge, let alone consolidate, against China.

Wang, therefore, delivered a message of following an overall “pragmatic” approach. For Beijing, this pragmatism holds dual significance. First, there is little denying that China is the EU’s largest import partner. The message was delivered to the EU’s largest economy also because Germany had voted against EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EV) last year. (The German decision was also informed by a desire to avoid Chinese tariffs on German car exports to China.) Still, China’s message has implications for the entire EU, both in the context of the EU-US state of affairs and the EU’s increasing, logical focus on keeping its interests, including reviving its global position, up front. Last year, the 2024 Draghi report on European competitiveness, whose author is Italy’s former prime minister, made clear the critical changes EU needed to make to stay competitive. Wang made sure to convey China’s willingness to German, EU, and French leaders to deepen “all-round cooperation”.

Second, by offering a pragmatic approach, China hopes to isolate the US position on geopolitical issues like Taiwan. On February 16, the US State Department quietly changed its factsheet on US-Taiwan relations, deleting its long-standing phrase that said the US does “not support Tawain independence.” Trump has already caused jitters in Taipei when he said last week that Taiwan, the world’s leading maker of semiconductors, had taken the chip business away from the US and that he wants it to come back, and declaring that Taiwan is rich enough to pay for its own defense.

Multipolarity

By seeking to wean the EU away from the US, China ultimately hopes for a more multipolar world order. “A multipolar world is not only a historical inevitability; it is also becoming a reality,” Wang said in his Munich speech. This is where both China and Russia find their interests converging and this is why Russia is unlikely to have any serious issues with China quietly supporting a place for the EU at the negotiating table. Ultimately, Russia sees the US-backed NATO as a threat. If the EU ultimately opts for a European security system, Russia stands to gain from it. More balanced ties between EU and Russia in the future can also revive Russian economic ties with the continent.

In the long run, therefore, the plan is to remove the US from the European equation. The UK pushed itself out through Brexit. If the US is no longer there as a dominant player, it will only further the Chinese (and Russian) position globally, not just in Europe, to the US’s growing disadvantage.

Dr. Salman Rafi Sheikh is an assistant professor of politics at the Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS) in Pakistan. He is a long-time contributor to Asia Sentinel.