China's Top Military in Civil War
Disagreement over Taiwan seen as a reason for infighting
A power struggle, possibly over Taiwan strategy, is raging within China’s Central Military Commission (CMC), comprising the handful of men who hold the highest power over the military, including President Xi Jinping. Extremely unusual changes to the CMC website indicate tectonic power shifts in the top command with two senior officers, General He Weidong and Admiral Miao Hua, effectively removed.
“There is some sort of power struggle going on for sure. But we are not sure if Xi is cleansing other factions or other factions are cleansing Xi’s faction or various factions under Xi are cleansing on another,” a Malaysian analyst who declined to be named told Asia Sentinel.
Although rumors have been circulating in recent days, Xi appears to not have lost power, signaled by state media websites and government agencies prominently displaying reports that Xi met Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko in Beijing on June 4. Xi asserted his authority with an article published on the websites on June 5 in two Chinese state media, People’s Daily and Xinhua, which described him as CMC chairman giving an order on military infrastructure.
Currently, the CMC, chaired by Xi, has six members including two vice chairmen, General Zhang Youxia and He Weidong, then three ordinary members, Generals Liu Zhenli and Zheng Shengmin, and Admiral Miao. The commission is believed to have a “Shaanxi faction” led by Zhang Youxia, the second most powerful military leader after Xi himself, and a “Fujian faction” headed by He, the third most powerful leader after Zhang and Xi. Zhang and Xi were born in Shaanxi, while General He previously served with Xi in Fujian.
The CMC website was previously easily accessible on the Chinese Ministry of Defense website, but in the past several days, it has become difficult to locate. The website still exists, but the names of the CMC members have gone “cold”, in the sense that clicking on them yields no results. Several weeks ago, the names of the members were “hot links, “where clicking on them yielded information on them.
“The confusion we see on the websites of the Ministry of Defence and CMC does indicate abnormal personnel movements at the top,” said Willy Lam, a senior fellow of the Jamestown Foundation, a US think tank. “General He Weidong lost power more than one month ago and is credibly reported to be under investigation; yet his name is still on these high-level websites. But Miao Hua's name as disappeared.”
Miao was removed from the CMC website by May 30, but He is still present. Searches for the two yielded no result on the Ministry of Defense’s website, while searches of all other CMC members yielded multiple records, indicating their downfall.
On May 15, a report of the National People’s Congress, China’s Parliament, announced Miao was guilty of “violating party discipline and the law,” a more serious accusation than the announcement of the Defense Ministry on November 28, 2024, that he had been dismissed for violating party discipline. For violating the law, Miao is certain to be charged in court, which carries a very high conviction rate.
He is not only a senior military leader but also a Politburo member – one of the 24 that effectively rule China, according to an April 23 report of the India-based Organization for Research on China and Asia (ORCA) by Srikanth Kondopalli. “His sudden disappearance, occurring in close succession to Admiral Miao Hua’s removal, raises significant questions regarding elite political stability, internal purges, and the mechanisms of control within the upper echelons of the Chinese military establishment.”
Miao’s disappearance “sent shock waves in China’s military, as he had belonged to the “Fujian faction” – very powerful as it is associated with CMC chairman Xi Jinping himself,” wrote Kondopalli, a professor in Chinese studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University.
General He and Admiral Miao were solid “Xi's men,” said the Jamestown Foundation’s Lam. Xi became good personal friends of both officers when he served as a mid-ranking official in Fujian province from 1985 to 2002, he explained.
Although He and Miao were Xi proteges, friendship and rivalry are based on many factors in Chinese politics, Lam said. A close relationship with the Chinese leader could matter little if there are other issues at stake, he added. From 2023 to 2024, Xi removed a number of his proteges including two defense ministers, Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu, Lam pointed out.
On June 29, 2024, the Chinese government announced Wei and Li were expelled from the Chinese Communist Party and faced charges, Asia Sentinel reported on the same day.
Divisions over Taiwan
“There are differences of strategic opinion within the CMC,” an unnamed China watcher told Asia Sentinel. “He Weidong owed his rise to Xi. His position was critically important. He was the architect of China’s military strategy on Taiwan, including invading Taiwan or blockading Taiwan.” He’s removal came at a critical time of Sino-US tensions, he pointed out, with his removal possibly due to his views on when China should take action on Taiwan. General He takes a cautious and conservative stance on whether China should invade Taiwan, he added.
“The key decision-making body for China during a war is being restructured. It’s more about cutting out the objectors. He Weidong and Miao Hua were taken out because they were perceived to be disloyal to the nation. Anyone who is perceived to be a risk to decision making in China is not welcome in the CMC,” the China watcher explained.
General Zhang Shengmin is believed to be an ally of General Zhang Youxia (both are not related). Both men belong to the “Shaanxi gang”, since Zhang Shengmin was born in Shaanxi province while Zhang Youxia was born in Beijing, but his ancestors hailed from Shaanxi. Both generals have worked together in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), said Anushka Saxena, a research analyst, in an article of Think China, a Singapore publication, on April 30. “It is no surprise that, as the CMC’s anti-corruption czar, Zhang Shengmin would act as a hammer Zhang Youxia may have no trouble wielding.”
Zhang Shengmin’s role as Xi’s anti-corruption czar in the CMC would be pivotal, said Lyle Morris, an Asia Society Policy Institute senior fellow, in an Asia Society article on October 27, 2022. Since Xi took over as the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary in 2012, more than 48 senior military officers have been prosecuted for corruption, holding the rank of lieutenant general to major general rank. Six of them are former CMC members and two former CMC vice chairmen, wrote Morris.
General Liu Zhenli is also a possible ally of General Zhang Youxia. Both fought for China in 1986 in the border battle with Vietnam, and likely bonded through that battle, Morris added.
“The frequency of these dismissals on a large scale under Xi Jinping underscore the uncertainties in (the) CCP-PLA relationship,” wrote Kondapalli in the ORCA report.