Bangladesh Begins to Shake Off Hasina’s Ouster

Yunus tries to preserve a path to reform, elections

By: Nava Thakuria

Although Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, sworn in as Bangladesh’s interim prime minister on August 8 to replace Sheikh Hasina, who fled for India ahead of an angry mob, hopes to organize a credible national election within 90 days, the ground reality may compel the caretaker government to go for institutional reform before being able to hold polls. Some pessimistic estimates are that an election could be up to three years away.

In the meantime, the country is still by no means completely stable. It is probable that, masked by the façade of technocrats led by Yunus, the military is likely to run affairs from behind the scenes as it has in past crises, waiting while workers and students calm down enough to return to their homes and dormitories. If there is continuing instability, which Yunus and the technocrats have little political experience in handling, the army is likely to clamp down and prioritize political stability and economic growth. In an effort to cool inflamed passions, Yunus himself has visited the injured including student protesters in hospitals. Following communal violence, he has threatened to resign if the unrest continued and vowed to crack down on conspirators of the attacks.

Yunus’s interim government recently announced the formation of six commissions to seek reforms in the police and public administration, the anti-corruption agency, the judiciary, the electoral system, and possibly the constitution, which was adopted after a secular Bangladesh was born out of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan in 1971. The majority of Bangladeshis appear to concur that only after reforms, particularly electoral ones, are free, fair, and participatory elections possible.

“The commissions will complete their work within the next three months,” a source close to Yunus, who remains phenomenally popular, told Asia Sentinel. “Based on their reports, the interim government will organize consultative meetings with the major political parties. Finally, a broad-based consultative meeting engaging representatives from the student community, business fraternity, civil society, political activists, and government agencies will be organized to settle the framework for reforms.”

Despite a decade of economic progress under IMF-sponsored reforms that delivered an average 6.5 percent GDP growth, the economy faced increasing headwinds from the 2020 onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, which hit Bangladesh’s ready-made garments industry, the main economic engine and foreign exchange driver, which employs some 4.4 million people, mostly women. Garment industry workers are now demanding a minimum monthly wage raise from the current US$110 to the equivalent of US$208, which would eat into international competitiveness.

Inflation, a worldwide problem, hit 9.5 percent in 2023, battering a slowing industry, resulting in a slowdown and wrecking Hasina’s approval ratings. When widespread demonstrations broke out, she answered with bullets that took the lives of at least 650 protesters and spawned massive resistance that drove her into exile. Tellingly, it was Bangladesh’s army chief, General Waker-uz-Zaman, who announced her departure aboard a Bangladesh Air Force plane.

In addition to placing too much dependence on a single industry, the country faces other problems including the possible resurgence of Muslim nationalism with the freeing from prison of Hasina’s longtime rival, former prime minister, Begum Khalida Zia, the 79-year-old head of Bangladesh National Party. Khalida was almost immediately hospitalized with a variety of illnesses and plans to go abroad for treatment, however, and her long period in prison probably means the BNP will need time to reorganize. There are problems with the million-odd Rohingya refugees driven out of neighboring Myanmar, which refuses to take them back, and who are living in dreadful squalor. Two jihadist groups, Jamaat-ul Mujahideen Bangladesh and Ansarul Islam, have been kept at bay by Hasina’s secular government but could experience a resurgence.

Speaking to Asia Sentinel, the source close to Yunus added that the interim government has to rebuild the country as Hasina destroyed all institutions during her 15-year rule, with a student-led movement for job quota reforms turning into unprecedented outrage. Hasina was given shelter by India “following a short notice request.” Otherwise, New Delhi has not made any official declaration about her status as an asylum seeker. It is unclear if Hasina is allowed to stay in India or is looking for a third-country destination. There are rumors she will seek refuge in the UK.

The interim administration has achieved some diplomatic success on different fronts. The former banker, who was praised for developing microlending, has received encouraging messages from development partners, global leaders, and institutions including nearly 100 Nobel laureates as well as former US President Barack Obama, human rights activist Shirin Ebadi, and others. He remains a Washington favorite and received a US delegation in Dhaka on September 15 to assure support for economic growth, financial stability, and development initiatives.

Whether Bangladesh now becomes a pawn in the match between the US and China is open to question. Hasina carefully triangulated between the US and China, which invested nearly US$7 billion in infrastructure and economic development. The US, unlikely to match China’s funding levels, is nonetheless keen to make the country an active part of Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy, which is making inroads with India and other nations. China meanwhile is seeking greater influence in its bid for global hegemony.

Accordingly, the US delegation, headed by Assistant Treasury Secretary Brent Neiman, Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu, USAID Deputy Assistant Administrator Änjali Kaur, and Assistant Trade Representative Brendan Lynch, proffered a development agreement worth over $200 million support development, strengthen governance, expand trade and create greater opportunities to build a brighter and more prosperous future. From 2021-2026, USAID has committed nearly US$1 billion to the country. The Asian Development Bank, Bangladesh’s second-largest multilateral development partner after the World Bank, has agreed to provide budgetary support.

Yunus has reiterated that Dhaka prefers to maintain healthy relations with India, which had supported Hasina and now has harbored her. On August 16 he dialed Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who emphasized the protection of Hindus and other minorities in Bangladesh, to which Yunus committed to ensure for all minorities which constitute hardly 10 percent of the Muslim majority nation. He also invited the Indian premier along with a group of journalists to visit Bangladesh.

Unconfirmed reports suggest as many as 1,000 attacks materialized against minorities in August after the Hasina regime fell. Contrary to earlier years, Hindu and other religious minorities hit the streets in Dhaka and Chittagong on September 13, demanding their socio-political dues. Thousands of agitators blocked the Shahbag intersection of the capital city to demand swift action against continued attacks on religious minorities and their sacred places. Representatives from Sanatani Adikhar Andolan, a coalition of Hindu organizations, criticized the government for failing to address their demands.

They submitted an eight-point charter of demands including a probe into the attacks on Hindu families and properties as well as demanding compensation and rehabilitation, formation of a minority commission and ministry, and reservation of seats in the national assembly. In a September 11 televised address, Yunus reiterated the primary task of his government “is to ensure justice and accountability for the killings” which took place in July and August. He noted the sacrifice of hundreds of students, journalists, and civilians from all walks of life to end Hasina’s reign, ‘who led a brutal genocide right up until her downfall. Speaking about thousands of others who were injured or crippled for life Yunus committed the government to ensure medical treatment.

The interim government is seeking Hasina’s extradition from New Delhi. Initially, Hasina and her son, who lives in the US, made contradictory statements about her departure and probable return. Indian media outlets alleged that with Hasina’s ouster, Hindus and other religious minorities were facing an Islamist backlash. Yunus, in an interview with an Indian news agency, urged New Delhi to avoid judgment. 

Initially, it was believed that Hasina’s ouster would benefit the primary opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party in the polls. But neither the BNP nor any Islamic fundamentalists have received public support and all major political parties are seemingly seeking political mileage in vain.