The decision to deny US ships to land in Hong Kong could mean long-term
circumscribing of US naval power in the Asia Pacific
USS Kitty Hawk, CV-63
 Diplomatic friction between the United
States and the People's Republic of China has grown more palpable
since the US Thanksgiving. A series of high profile events involving
the port of Hong Kong have unfolded on the international stage,
leaving observers, political analysts and military planners
contemplating the significance of these incidents.
A Changing
Arrangement
In 1997, as Great Britain was preparing to cede
sovereignty over Hong Kong to China, an agreement was negotiated to
maintain Hong Kong's status as an international hub of freight
traffic, allowing vessels to dock regularly and in a fairly liberal
fashion. China was given the right to reject individual port calls;
in return, Western negotiators were given assurances that this right
would be exercised infrequently and that in general port calls would
be approved promptly. For the most part, this arrangement has proven
successful. Every year, multitudes of vessels originating from all
around the world flow into the port of Hong Kong. Among them are US
military vessels. Each year, the US Navy makes approximately 50 port
calls in Hong Kong.
The events late November, however,
indicate that commitment to this arrangement may not be robust. On
November 20, two navy minesweepers, the USS Patriot and USS Guardian,
were performing routine patrol missions in the South China Sea when a
weather storm descended upon them. Both ships were also running low
on fuel. They sent an emergency request to Chinese authorities to
dock at Hong Kong in order to weather the storm and refuel. The
request was denied. The two ships were forced to stay out at
sea.
Another incident centers around a US aircraft carrier,
the USS Kitty Hawk. The Kitty Hawk and the five support vessels that
travel with her were scheduled to dock in Hong Kong on November 21,
one day before Thanksgiving. The arrangements for this port call had
been worked out well in advance, and the Chinese authorities had
granted approval. As the USS Kitty Hawk approached port, Chinese
authorities radioed to indicate that the approval had been revoked.
In order
to salvage some part of the holiday, the USS Kitty Hawk turned and
sailed for Japan, where approval would be certain. Some time later,
Chinese authorities radioed again to say that approval had been
re-granted. Yet, by this time, the Kitty Hawk was well on her way to
Japan and could not afford to turn back.
On the same day, two
other events transpired. Chinese authorities sent a communiqué
to the US Department of the Navy to inform them that the pending
request for the USS Reuben James to dock in Hong Kong on New Year's
Day had been denied. Chinese authorities also sent a communiqué
to the Department of State to inform them that they were rescinding
permission for the planned landing of an American C-17 cargo plane,
which comes to Hong Kong quarterly in order to stock and support the
US Consulate. At the time, no explanation for any of the preceding
events was offered. The relevant American authorities lodged formal
protests with their Chinese counterparts.
During an exchange
between President George W. Bush and Chinese Foreign Minister Yang
Jiechi on November 28, Bush asked for an explanation for the Kitty
Hawk incident. Foreign Minister Yang said that it was a
misunderstanding; the result of poor communication. In some circles
this explanation was accepted, while in others it was perceived as
transparent and lacking.
On the same day, a Chinese missile
destroyer, the Shenzhen, arrived in Japan for a peaceful and historic
visit. This was the first visit to Japan by a Chinese naval vessel
since World War II. The purpose of the visit was to build confidence
through military to military exchange.
Two days later at a
press briefing in Beijing, Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao
told reporters that the explanation given by Foreign Minister Yang
was incorrect. "We have taken note of the reports," he
explained. "I want to clarify that all the reports are not
true." He asserted that the Kitty Hawk incident was not the
result of miscommunication, but rather a reaction to recent US
actions.
Liu
indicated that Sino-American relations had been "disturbed and
harmed" by the US Congress' recent award to the Dalai Lama, whom
China regards as a threatening separatist. It is suspected that the
Pentagon's recent arms sales to Taiwan also figured into China's
calculus, although Liu did not vocalize this point. He also denied
that Chinese authorities had received formal protests from the
American side and asserted that "there should not be such
protests."
There are two possible interpretations of
this comment. One is that there should not be protest because the
Kitty Hawk was ultimately given permission to dock and continued to
sail for Japan anyway, so the onus rests on the American side. The
other interpretation is that the American government chose to give
the Dalai Lama an award, and knew in advance that this would anger
the Chinese government, so the American side should not be surprised
that the Chinese side reacted negatively. Thus, in China's
perception, there is no cause for protest. Either or both
interpretations may be correct.
The Effects on Sino-American
Relations
Regardless of the interpretation, the events of the last
week are significant for Sino-American relations. Some observers view
these events as the prelude to an era of increased friction and
decreased cooperation between the two governments and their
respective militaries. This view seems incorrect. It is more likely
that this is a tit-for-tat scenario, in which cooperation will resume
if a gesture of good faith is made.
Even if
friction decreases and cooperation resumes, however, the events of
the last week will still have a strong impact on Sino-American
relations. The impact is highly nuanced and can best be understood by
considering Washington's ability to project national power, the
"responsible stakeholder" paradigm, and the balance of
power in East Asia.
Washington's ability to project national
power has been diminished by the events of last week. At first glance
this may not seem clear, given that the US Navy has not lost any
vessels or rights to sea lanes. It is not as though the US ability to
project power was contingent on the USS Kitty Hawk's successful
completion of operation Thanksgiving. Rather, the conclusion that
Washington's power projection ability has been diminished flows from
the establishment of a new precedent and the impact that this has
upon future expectations.
A precedent has been established in
which Chinese authorities have proven themselves willing to cancel
longstanding commitments to harbor and support US military craft.
Knowing this, American military planners will no longer design
operations that require support from China. In certain scenarios,
this may have the effect of limiting Washington's freedom of action
within multiple regions.
In the ongoing policy dialogue of
Sino-American relations, a recurrent theme is the "responsible
stakeholder" paradigm coined by Robert Zoellick. The paradigm
asserts that China is benefiting tremendously from the global system,
and as such has a responsibility to support that system. When China
undertakes some action that is deleterious to the established order,
critics charge that China is not behaving like a "responsible
stakeholder." When China undertakes some action that is
supportive of the established order, proponents assert that China is
making an effort and moving toward becoming a "responsible
stakeholder" and, therefore, Western governments should exercise
patience. The dialogue between the two camps is often colored by this
language.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry has stated that recent
events were a natural reaction to US overtures, but this position is
difficult to justify. One of the few respected rules of the sea is
that when a vessel is in trouble (i.e. facing a storm or running low
on fuel), assistance is provided first and details sorted out later.
China violated this rule by denying assistance to the USS Patriot and
USS Guardian. In future policy dialogues, references to this incident
will certainly be manifest and may make the arguments of China's
critics more forceful than those of its advocates.
Regarding
the balance of power, the events of the last week are a clear
indication that a change is occurring in East Asia. Expressed in the
simplest terms, the US Navy is losing the ability to dock in Chinese
controlled territories while the Chinese navy is gaining the ability
to dock in Japanese territories. The frontier of the American sphere
of influence is regressing, while the frontier of the Chinese sphere
of influence is growing outward.
At a deeper level of
analysis the change in the balance of power is even more evident. The
USS Kitty Hawk is considered a significant vessel by the Chinese. The
ship provided indispensible support to the campaign in Afghanistan,
to which China, along with other member states in the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization, has taken a clear stance of active
disapproval. To the Chinese government, the USS Kitty Hawk is
symbolic of Washington's role in Afghanistan and presence in Central
Asia.
The USS Kitty Hawk is also symbolic of another long
standing disagreement. In 1994, the Kitty Hawk was instrumental in
putting down tensions between Taiwan and the mainland. Ever since
1998, the Kitty Hawk has been the flagship in US efforts to maintain
peace across the straits. As a result, to the Chinese government the
USS Kitty Hawk is also symbolic of Washington's extended deterrence
for Taiwan.
Given that the Kitty Hawk symbolizes Washington's
presence and dominance in China's backyard, the rejection of the
Kitty Hawk and concurrent expedition to Japan must be viewed as
changes in the balance of power in East Asia. The extent and
consequences of these changes are unclear at the present time.
However, if these questions are to be understood in the future, the
answers will most likely be gleamed from analysis of events in
Taiwan, Japan and the Spratley Islands. If the spheres of influence
are indeed shifting, any repercussions will be evident in these
domains, which are situated at the threshold of the two spheres.
The
Power and Interest News Report (PINR) is an independent organization
that utilizes open source intelligence to provide conflict analysis
services in the context of international relations.
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