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Hu
Jintao’s potential successor emerges from Shanghai party
 Suddenly,
a whiff of drama and suspense has suffused top-level Chinese
Communist Party (CCP) politics, which is still run largely along
monolithic, Leninist lines. Shanghai Party Secretary Xi Jinping has
emerged as a possible successor to General Secretary and President Hu
Jintao.
Latest
reports from Beijing say that both Xi, 54, and Liaoning party boss Li
Keqiang, 52, are tipped to join the elite Politburo Standing
Committee (PSC) at the 17th CCP Congress set to open in
October 15. However, last-minute changes in the personnel line-up are
expected. The nine members of the incumbent PSC, who have a big say
in picking their successors, are expected to continue marathon
horse-trading sessions through the National Day Golden Week holidays.
Until
last week, Li, nicknamed “Hu Jintao’s clone” due to
the many similarities between the two, was deemed the only
Fifth-Generation cadre (that is, one born in the 1950s) to have
secured a ticket to the all-powerful standing committee. However,
standing committee members, in particular Vice-President Zeng
Qinghong, have argued that given Li’s lack of national stature
or an illustrious track record, at least one more Fifth-Generation
official should be elevated to the Standing Committee. And, depending
on their performance in the coming five years, one of the two will be
designated Hu’s successor at the 18th CCP Congress
in late 2012.
Zeng,
68, who used to be the hatchet man of Hu’s main political foe,
ex-president Jiang Zemin, has also indicated that he is willing to
retire if Xi and possibly one more of his protégés are
inducted into the PSC. Political sources in Beijing say that the Xi
candidacy is still being considered by incumbent PSC members. They
say that Hu prefers Li to be the only representative of the younger
generation in the post-17th Congress PSC, but the supremo
may acquiesce in Xi’s promotion in return for the elevation of
a couple more of his close associates.
Xi,
who only became Shanghai’s No. 1 in March this year, has risen
largely because of his acceptability to the two most important
cliques of the CCP: the Hu Jintao, or Communist Youth League,
faction, and the Shanghai faction. Considered a “princeling”
(he is the son of former vice-premier Xi Zhongxun), Xi had a
reputation for being a competent and low-key administrator when he
ran the coastal provinces of Zhejiang and Fujian from the early 1990s
to early this year.
While
being a native of inland Shaanxi Province, he is acceptable to
members of the still-powerful Shanghai faction due to his success in
spearheading the hi-tech transformation of nearby Zhejiang. Since the
spring, cadres in Shanghai – who have become demoralized due to
corruption charges leveled against disgraced former party secretary
Chen Liangyu and his cronies – have organized several “learning
trips” to Zhejiang, whose economy is largely anchored upon tens
of thousands of innovative, market-oriented private firms.
Most
importantly, Xi is also acceptable to Hu. His father, Xi Zhongxun,
was a comrade-in-arms of the late party chief Hu Yaobang, who was
unceremoniously sacked by late patriarch Deng Xiaoping in January
1987. On that occasion, the elder Xi was one of only a few party
elders who spoke out in defense of Hu, who had incurred the ire of
conservatives due to his advocacy of political liberalization. While
Hu Jintao does not share the elder Hu’s liberal philosophy, he
was the latter’s protégé: the younger Hu got his
first ministerial-level appointment, as head of the Communist Youth
League, in 1984 through the late leader’s recommendation.
Diplomatic
analysts in Beijing say the possible induction of Xi should not
detract from Hu’s ever-growing clout. In the run-up to the 17th
Congress, Hu, as chairman of the Central Military Commission, has
masterminded a series of promotions in the People’s Liberation
Army. It is a tradition going back to the Yan’an Caves that in
the CCP, whoever controls the army controls everything else.
Given
the rising tension over the Taiwan Strait – caused by Taipei’s
bid to hold a referendum to garner support for the “rejoin-the-United
Nations” campaign – Hu has elevated a number of officers
with experience in provinces just opposite Taiwan. For instance, the
newly named Chief of the General Staff, Gen Chen Bingde, was head of
the Nanjing Military Region (MR), which is “responsible”
for the Taiwan Strait. Other high-profile alumnae of the Nanjing MR
include newly promoted Vice-Chief of the General Staff Gen Wu Shengli
and Commandant of the Academy of Military Sciences Gen Ma Xiaotian.
And the new Air Force Commander, Xu Qiliang, was once an ace pilot
based in Fujian, China’s “frontline” province just
opposite the “breakaway island.”
President
Hu is expected to deliver a strong warning to the administration of
Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian during the 17th Congress.
And if the General Secretary and commander-in-chief can secure the
loyalty of the PLA top guns, the Fourth-Generation leader will have
the wherewithal to nudge his Politburo comrades into line.
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