Elite officers shaken by monks' rebellion seeking solution amid talk of diplomatic initiative
Elements
of Burma’s ruling junta are
saying privately that the worsening crisis in Rangoon is provoking fear and misgiving among
the upper echelons of the nation’s military elite, who may refuse to shoot at monks, Asia Sentinel has been told.
Sources
say that foreign diplomats are heading for Rangoon, perhaps on a chartered
flight, to seek a way out of the worst crisis the country’s ruling military
junta has faced since seizing power in 1988 in a bloody crackdown on democracy
protesters.There are signs that a diplomatic initiative to find a solution to
the crisis in Burma is underway as splits may be developing in the ruling
junta.
At
least some of the ruling junta’s generals are reported to be “in shock” at the
uprising of the nation’s revered clerics. With monks in play, the crisis is
worse than the junta could have imagined and some military leaders are
reportedly deeply worried that the situation may already be out of hand.
A
source informed Asia Sentinel that some regional commanders have sent word to
their superiors that they will not attack monks. They will reportedly guarantee
the safety of the monks.
The
wild card in the crisis is the role of Aung Sang Suu Kyi, the Nobel laureate
and leader of the opposition National League for Democracy. The generals despise "the lady," as she is known, sources say, and some alternative to her may need to be found.
While
she has not had a leading role in the current protests, Aung San Suu Kyi is
inevitably a major figure in any protest. With the outside world, especially
the United States
and the EU, focused on her it would be difficult to imagine a scenario in which
she did not play a role. While there are deep divisions within the Burmese
opposition, most dissidents are united in their respect for the dedication that
has led her to spend most of the last 20 years under house arrest.
Sources
in Rangoon say the crisis could go either way, with some elite officers willing
to contemplate change and others willing to spill blood again as they did in
1988. Observers believe there is a split in the powerful army, with at least
some senior officers looking for a way to move the country forward.
One
source insisted that changes have begun to be rumored at upper levels of the
military but that it is almost impossible to tell what the early shifts mean. For
years analysts and diplomats have said that senior officers fear for their own
physical safety in any political transition because of the degree of animosity
directed against them by the population.
“If
a diplomatic initiative gets back to the monks,” argued an analyst. “It will
embolden them because they will know there is movement.”
The
diplomatic maneuvering and word of concern in the upper ranks of the military
came as the junta went into action Wednesday, arresting and shooting
demonstrators at two of the country's holiest shrines and sealing the country
off from the outside world as marchers attempted to walk from Shwedagon Pagoda
to Sule Pagoda in Rangoon.
As many as seven people were reported killed, although the figure could not be
confirmed independently.
The ruling junta slapped a nighttime curfew on Rangoon on Wednesday and declared the entire
city a military "restricted" area, after days of mass street protests
driven by tens of thousands of Buddhist monks. About 50 monks were
arrested and taken away as troops assailed hundreds of demonstrators, beating
them and using tear gas on them, according to reports from the scene.
The violent onslaught sent citizens fleeing in panic and provoked howls of
anger as soldiers dispersed crowds.
After
holding back as the peaceful nationwide protests led by Burma's barefoot monks
swelled in numbers, the junta’s soldiers stormed the crowds Wednesday in
clashes, wielding guns and batons as to break up a march of about 10,000 citizens
and monks who were heading to Sule Pagoda, the end-point for the largest
anti-junta protests since the junta used mass killings to quash a pro-democracy
uprising in 1988. Citing sources at a Rangoon
hospital, Reuters reported that one person died of a gunshot wound and five
others were also shot and were undergoing treatment. Monks and other people
were beaten and hauled into waiting trucks, agencies reported.
It
was also reported the Internet access to the country was being disabled and
that steps were taken to limit the use of mobile telephones. Outsiders have
been relying on bloggers and others inside the repressive country to provide a
steady stream of information since the protests began. It is notoriously
difficult for journalists to enter the country.
Marchers
chanting Buddhist prayers defied an order that restricted gatherings in Rangoon to no more than
five people. Monks urged people to protect stand back and allow the clerics to
absorb the brunt of the struggle. On Tuesday night, the first in which the
military enforced a curfew, security forces snatched more than a dozen student
activists and popular figures, including comedians, poets and actors, from
their homes.
Many
Burmese expected Wednesday's crackdown, as the protests that began last month
when authorities increased fuel prices quickly escalated after junta forces
used violence against monks. As thousands hit the streets, the military faced a
dilemma: crack down on the monks and risk an escalation of the conflict, or do
nothing and make average citizens more confident to join the marches.
"For
the Burmese, the use of force is not surprising," said Khin Ohmar, head of
the Asia-Pacific People's Partnership for Burma, an umbrella group of NGOs.
"It was just a matter of time. Living under this regime, people know what
to expect."
Khin
Omar, who said a girl was shot and wounded on the corner of 34th street and Mahabandoola Road
in Rangoon,
called on countries around the world to speak out.
"We
really need the international community to take immediate action against the
regime," she said. "People will continue to defy the orders and take
on the violence. Hopefully the international community won't just sit at the UN
General Assembly while another killing field takes place."
The
junta, headed by General Than Shwe, is despised by its people and deplored by
much of the world. Its lifeline appears to be solid economic ties with China and India. China has encouraged "national
reconciliation" but said little else.
"The
response by the Chinese Foreign Ministry was lame and unconstructive,"
said Dave Mathieson, a Burma
consultant with Human Rights Watch. "The support the Chinese are giving to
the SPDC [State Peace and Development Council] is just selfish so they can
maintain access to raw materials and trade."
The
US and Britain reacted
strongly against the regime. On Tuesday, US President George W. Bush announced
that the US would tighten
sanctions against Burma.
After
reports of shooting surfaced on Wednesday, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown
called for a meeting of the UN Security Council.
"The
whole issue of sanctions is going to take on a new dimension," Brown said,
according to the BBC. "I hope the whole world will make its views known
and will make the Burmese regime realize it is not only unacceptable, but they
will be held to account in the eyes of the whole world."
The
Asian Human Rights Commission (AHRC) on Wednesday released a letter from a
prominent abbot at an urban monastery in Rangoon
addressed to Than Shwe that calls on the military regime "to restore the
people's power to its original owner."
U
Thangara Linkara, abbot of the Dhamma Yeiktha Monastery in Rangoon, wrote: "The root cause is
power. Those individuals who temporarily held the people's power on behalf of
the people have prolonged [their hold on power] for their own purposes for over
60 years. The original owners of power, the people, have been made innocent
victims: more and more repressed and poor and impoverished. In fact, the
people's power should be in the people's hands, so that people can live
comfortably and free from difficulty."
With
Wednesday's crackdown, it now becomes a waiting game to see if Burma’s unarmed
monks and citizens will continue to defy the regime’s guns. As the junta proved
again yesterday, protestors could easily pay with their lives.
"The
bravery of the demonstrators is astounding because they know just how violently
the government can react," said Mathieson of Human Rights Watch.
"They know that whenever they go out on the streets they could be shot to
death."
Many
analysts are wary about speculating on what will happen next, saying it largely
depends on just how much the latest violent crackdown will deter the citizenry
from showing dissent. But regardless of how many people show up on the streets
in the coming days, the root causes of the discontent remain and will only
fester over time.
"There
is the possibility the numbers may drop, but then again thousands still defied
the junta today," Khin Ohmar said. "If the numbers drop, that doesn't
mean the movement will be stopping anytime soon."
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