Asia Sentinel
Already subscribed? Login here
| Thailand’s Uncharted Waters |
|
|
| Written by Daniel Ten Kate | |
| Wednesday, 19 September 2007 | |
|
The 2nd year after the Sept 19 coup brings more uncertainty
After tossing out the government in a bloodless coup on a rainy Tuesday night that brought Thailand’s tradition of military rule back into focus, the junta also voided the constitution and the constitutional court.
With strong public support, especially the middle classes and the rich on Bangkok, the junta installed a government of the elite, drafted a new constitution weakening political parties and appointed a new court that ended up dissolving Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai party and banning its leaders from politics for five years. It created an investigative body to comb through allegations of Thaksin's corruption and misdeeds, which ended up freezing most of the $2 billion in proceeds from his family's controversial sale of the giant telecom company Shin Corp to Singapore's Temasek Holdings in January 2006.
The generals finally secured a couple of arrest warrants for Thaksin and will ask Britain to extradite the deposed premier to face trial in Thailand – a request that will most likely be rejected.
The biggest surprises were the government's economic miscues, which left the business community, local and foreign, confused and frustrated. In addition, the strong "no" vote on the constitutional referendum in the depressed northeast of the country seemed also to show that Thaksin retains strong support among the poor.
The
army leaders claimed the putsch was necessary because Thaksin had
divided the country, compromised independent agencies, insulted the
king and committed widespread corruption. A year later, the country
is still harshly divided between urban elites and the rural poor,
independent agencies are compromised junta allies, lese-majeste
charges against Thaksin have been dropped and few smoking guns have
been found regarding corruption – meaning that either
Thaksin was cleaner than we have been told or just very careful.
Although many Thais are looking forward to a new administration, the prospects of a stable government after elections later this year are dim, largely due to clauses in the new constitution that weaken the power of politicians in favor of unelected judges, bureaucrats and soldiers. Many analysts expect the next government to be short-lived as Thailand returns to the revolving-door “buffet” democracy of the 1990s.
What
to expect in Year Two? Here are some of the major question marks.
Can the Democrats
win the election scheduled for December 23?
The election outcome remains far from certain, but the Democrats have positioned themselves as frontrunners. Abhisit Vejjajiva, the party's sophisticated 42-year-old Oxford-educated leader, has promised to undo the military government's capital controls and stifling changes to the Foreign Business Act, making him a favorite in the business community. The party has also touted a "People's Agenda" that contains many of the populist elements that proved so successful for Thaksin, including universal health care and cheap loans. But whether that agenda will allow the Democrats to win in Thaksin’s northeastern base is up in the air. The party has recruited a number of popular ex-senators that will bolster its presence in the poorer region. The Democrats have always been popular among in the south and among educated Bangkok residents.
A Democrat win would surely put the country on a more stable footing. In the aftermath of the coup, party leaders immediately blamed Thaksin for leaving the military no choice but to act, and then told followers to approve the junta's constitution in August. Although the party has traditionally opposed military intervention in politics, certainly it is on much better terms with the men in green than its main rival, the People's Power party (PPP).
What would happen if PPP could form a government?
A win for Samak and PPP would be disastrous for the junta. After military leaders spent a year denouncing Thaksin, it would put back in power the people the military kicked out. That would raise the possibility of yet another coup, especially if PPP opens investigations into the junta leaders. Many analysts suspect it won't come to that, however, as the bureaucracy, independent agencies and courts are all working against PPP.
Will the army go
back to the barracks?
The next army chief has still not been announced but reports say General Anupong Paochinda will likely take over. Anupong, a highly regarded general with plenty of command experience, would be a steady hand with three years to go before mandatory retirement. Unlike others in the military, Anupong has passed up lucrative offers to chair state enterprises, preferring to stick to military duties. While another coup can never be ruled out, analysts say it would be more likely to occur with General Saprang Kalayanamitr at the helm. Saprang, who retires next year, is by the far the most outspoken in his hatred for Thaksin.
No matter which general is chosen, he must protect the army's political interests and make some progress in thwarting the insurgency in the southernmost Malay-Muslim provinces, where more than 2,500 have been killed since January 2004.
Will Thaksin return?
The increasingly powerful political role of judges makes a trial risky for Thaksin. Judges have become intertwined in politics ever since King Bhumibol Adulyadej told them in April 2006 to solve the country's problems. Immediately afterward, top judges held an unprecedented extra-constitutional forum, and the courts quickly nullified the April 2006 election. Then in subsequent decisions that ignored most Thai legal norms, the judges tossed the old Election Commission in jail, dissolved Thai Rak Thai and enforced an ex post facto junta order to ban the party's leaders from politics for five years.
The new constitution gives the judges even more power, which is frightening given the judiciary's track record of bowing to the powers that be. Indeed, the judiciary could have prevented this entire mess if they had voted to convict Thaksin in an airtight assets concealment case in 2001, which would have banned the telecommunications tycoon from politics for five years. But the courts sidestepped the rule of law in favor of Thaksin then, just as they have during the past 18 months in favor of his opponents.
Will the palace face
new threats?
After the coup, the military chose retired General Surayud Chulanont, a member of Bhumibol’s advisory council, as prime minister. But even his royal glow could not shield the interim government from criticism, and by January many were starting to question the administration’s competence. Then the monarchy faced a series of more open attacks, including anti-coup protests in front of Prem’s house and an orchestrated rumor campaign against the royal family.
However, the palace doesn’t want public debate on lese-majeste, particularly the cases against Thaksin. In April, the Bangkok Post reported that the lese-majeste charges were dropped because an aid to the king told Surayud “the king would rather not see this kind of case in court.”
Analysts say the amount of criticism directed at the palace has reached new levels, particularly in web forums. “Now you have the Internet and all kinds of illegal criticism,” said Sulak Sivaraksa, a prominent Buddhist scholar and serial lese-majeste offender. “This has never happened before.”
The police have attempted to fight back, reportedly tossing anti-monarchy bloggers in jail. Meanwhile, royal family attacks have gotten YouTube and other video-sharing sites blocked, but new sites constantly pop up.
Also ahead is the question of who will succeed the king. Thailand scholar Duncan McCargo wrote earlier this year: “The greater calamity of the succession lies ahead… The dhammaraja’s powers are waning; in 2006 the royal whisper proved insufficient, and it took a crude military intervention to remove Thaksin from office.”
Celebrations for the king’s 80th birthday in December should keep the country wearing yellow, symbolic for the day on which the king was born. But more dissent seems almost inevitable in next year.
Comments (2)
  written by Burneio, September 21, 2007
The Dems in Thailand are not as criminally connected as the powerful elites in the country would hope for.
I can't see the Dems winning too much control as they are not money people and money people are betting the King departs Earth and the Prince gains Crown. This way the evil won't need to stain their face by supporting a dissolving of Monarchy. Anyone wonder if China has an interest in this political storm? I'm betting they would prefer a more Chinese friendly regime then Western friendly one. Who would offer this? I have a feeling a serious conflict may arise between Thailand and Burma around election time where the military could impose emergency laws and suspend elections.
Write comment
|
The
year that has passed since royalist factions of the armed forces
ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra by force September 19, 2006,
has been fairly predictable.
Subscribe to this comment's feed
LATEST BLOGS
As Burma Opens, Critical NGOs look inWilliam Boot, The Irrawaddy
•
Some international organizations urge foreign...Full Story |
| Other Articles |
Mockingindian
Donate to Asia Sentinel
Yeah. Or maybe the problem was with the beneficiaries of the corruption in the previous life, not the corruption itself.
None of them are eager to dig too deeply or the web that ties themselves to the corrupt practices endemic to endo-imperialist exploitation in Thailand will be discovered along with the skeletons buried by the previous regime.
It's hard for me to see all of this as anything other than a colossal setback for self-rule by the Thai people.