 The Asia Foundation and local pollsters find possible green shoots. Are they justified?
Afghanistan's 28.4 million battle-weary people are slightly more optimistic in 2009 – or were, prior to the fiasco that their national election turned into, according to an exhaustive public opinion survey conducted throughout the country in June and July under the auspices of the Asia Foundation.
The survey, done in partnership with Afghan Socio-Economic and Opinion Research, presents a much fuller and certainly more complicated picture of the country than is generally available, and definitely a more optimistic one. In fact it is a study that flies dramatically in the face of the conventional wisdom that Afghanistan is a drug-ridden, violence-plagued, corrupt failed state, its political and governmental institutions in a state of collapse.
Nonetheless, 42 percent of the population were found by the researchers to believe the country was moving in the right direction, compared with 38 percent in 2008, while the number of people who believed it was going in the wrong direction dropped from 32 percent to 29 percent.
It has been a slow process, with the war against the Afghan insurgency now in its ninth year, and with many military analysts believing the administration of George W. Bush had squandered its early opportunity to clear out the rebels by turning its military attention to Iraq, particularly in not exerting maximum effort to apprehending Taliban and Al Qaeda leaders. The resultant lack of attention to Afghanistan allowed the insurgents to regroup and resupply after devastating early losses that drove many of them into Pakistan.
It isn't a wholly rosy picture. Today, the pollsters found, concerns such as unemployment (35 percent), the poor economy (20 percent), corruption (17 percent), poverty and lack of access to education have actually increased, with the country's monumental corruption levels a growing problem.
Security is an obvious concern. Some 51 percent of the respondents said they fear for their personal safety, and that there has been a significant rise in crime and violence in the southeast, southwest and western parts of the country. Ominously, security concerns restricted the movements of researchers much more than in past years, with more than more than 100 randomly selected sampling points inaccessible due to security reasons. Some 56 percent of the population say they have at least some level of sympathy for the motivations of armed opposition groups.
Some 17 percent of respondents say they or someone in their families have been victims of violence or crime. Significantly, the odds are about the same that violence will be visited on them by either insurgents or foreign forces. One in 10 of the victims said the violence was due to the actions of insurgents or militias, with an equal amount saying it was due to actions by foreign forces.
The sampling, taken by 648 Afghan researchers who conducted interviews across the entire country's 37 provinces, occurred well before the August 20 elections, which turned out to be riddled with fraud and have given the western occupation a serious black eye. After President Hamid Karzai had been declared the winner with almost 55 percent of the vote, a probe by Afghan and United Nations officials essentially voided the election, with a runoff with former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah now likely if it can get underway before early November, when extreme cold would cut into turnout.
It is difficult to say how much the election mess has affected attitudes. Prior to the election, 68 percent of respondents said parliament was addressing the major problems and 58 percent said their own members of parliament were addressing the concerns of their individual constituencies, a small improvement over 2008. The proportion of respondents who say that democracy is the best form of government available continues to fall, however, from 84 percent in 2006 to 78 percent in 2009. Likewise, the number of people who believe religious leaders should play a role in government also continues to increase.
Insecurity –violence, terrorism and attacks -- remains the biggest impediment to optimism, with 42 percent of respondents identifying it as the biggest problem the country faces, with NATO forces spending US$4 billion per month and, according to US Army Commander Stanley McChrystal, not gaining any traction.
At that, the results to some extent appear to belie the pessimism of military commanders, with those highlighting insecurity a concern falling from 50 percent in 2008. In particular, 64 percent of respondents gave positive assessments of security in their immediate surroundings, up slightly from 62 percent in 2008. More respondents in 2009 also cited reconstruction and rebuilding (36 percent) and the opening of schools for girls (21 percent) as reasons for optimism than in previous years.
Overall, in 2009 Afghans said they were more positive about their own economic situation thans in previous years, although prosperity isn't evenly shared, with 63 percent of urban respondents but only 52 percent of rural ones saying they are more prosperous than they were under the Taliban.
The struggle to build basic infrastructure continues, with concerns over the availability of electricity (26 percent), roads (24 percent), water (22 percent) and lack of health care/clinics/hospitals (20 percent). The greatest satisfaction is with the availability of education for children (67 percent), water for drinking, (63 percent) and irrigation (53 percent) and clinics and hospitals (49 percent) although a full two-thirds of respondents say the local electricity supply is bad and a third say they had no access to any electricity at all. Both figures, however, are improvements on previous years.
The most commonly mentioned government failings are insecurity (31 percent), administrative corruption (29 percent), lack of job opportunities (20 percent), weak economy (15 percent) and weak government (13 percent). Illiteracy, lack of employment opportunity and other major problems continue to plague women and girls.
A large majority -- 71 percent -- support the government's attempts to address the security situation through negotiation and reconciliation with armed anti-government elements. The proportion of respondents who say that democracy is the best form of government available continues to fall, from 84 percent in 2006 to 78 percent in 2009. However, since 2008 there has been no change in the level of satisfaction with the way democracy is working in Afghanistan (68 percent).
"Yet a sense of optimism remains," the report says. "The majority of respondents expect the security situation in their local area to improve in the next year, although, in regions where insecurity is a major problem, respondents are much less optimistic about future improvements. "
 |
Society 
Subscribe to this comment's feed
Show/Hide comments
Show/Hide comment form
