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| Written by John Elliott | |
| Friday, 14 August 2009 | |
 The struggle for primacy in the Indian Ocean
From John Elliott's blog, Riding the Elephant - http://ridingtheelephant.wordpress.com/, which appears elsewhere on Asia Sentinel. It's probably the tip of the iceberg of China's ambitions to thwart India's emergence as a significant economic and maybe diplomatic and military power. I'm referring to what might appear to some to be a crazy article on a Chinese strategic issues website, which claims that China could "dismember the so-called ‘Indian Union' with one little move". The writer has argued that India's national unity is weak and that China could exploit this by supporting separatist forces, such as those active in India's north-east state of Assam, and split the country into 20 or 30 sovereign states. "There cannot be two suns in the sky. China and India cannot really deal with each other harmoniously," said the article. That almost certainly reflects Beijing thinking, even though the founder of the website has claimed the anonymous writer has no known government links. The article was posted last Saturday and was publicized in India yesterday, prompting the Indian foreign ministry to say it appeared to be "an expression of individual opinion and does not accord with the officially stated position of China on India-China relations conveyed to us on several occasions". But what else could India say – especially since the article coincided with apparently cordial talks between the two countries on their border that has been disputed since China defeated India in a brief 1962 Himalayan war. It is not unusual for China to fly such extreme kites. Philip Bowring of the Hong Kong-based Asia Sentinel website pointed out that the arrest last week of two Rio Tinto executives in Beijing for alleged theft and corruption followed an internet article written by an official of China's National Administration for the Protection of State Secrets, which accused Rio of commercial "spying" that had cost the nation $100 billion in higher iron ore prices – an accusation says Bowring that "does not stand up to the most casual scrutiny of trade data". Bowring then points out that "although the article is no longer on the website, its claims have not been corrected and its imprint on Chinese minds will not disappear." The imprint of the India internet article will also not disappear because, whatever the two countries may say officially, it sums up what has been happening for years. As James Lamont and Amy Kazmin explained a month ago in an excellent FT round-up of the two countries' tortuous relations, China has been encircling India by developing influence and outposts in Pakistan, Nepal, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka, and wants to usurp India's major role in controlling the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea. Pakistan, which China has armed and helped become a nuclear power, has been destabilizing India first in Punjab (in the 1980s) and then in Kashmir. China has also for years been encouraging separatist forces in India's north-eastern states, including Assam, and will no doubt use its growing clout in Myanmar – and Bangladesh – to increase those activities. In the future it could perhaps use its growing influence in Sri Lanka – where it is developing a naval base and advised the government in the recent defeat of the Tamil Tiger separatists – to cause unrest among linked Tamil communities in southern India. It has also strengthened its border claims – for example by opposing a US$3 billion Asian Development Bank aid project in Arunachal Pradesh, an Indian border state that China claims as "south Tibet". And it tried to block international approval of the recent India-US nuclear deal with the US. This is of course a dangerous game and sometimes India has to respond – recently for example by moving fighter jets to the China border. I have heard a former senior Indian bureaucrat argue privately that China's basic – and permanent – aim is to force India to focus on domestic issues and thus thwart it becoming a future international rival. China, according to this view – which is surely correct – is determined to be the world's sole superpower after America, and does not want that status to be upset by a strong and democratic India backed by the US and Europe. Its tactics have become more insistent in the past two years as it has become irritated by India's growing links with the US, culminating in the nuclear deal. Everything that China does in relation to India therefore has to be seen through that prism. India will not fragment into 20 or 30 pieces – it is far too unified for that – but there is no prospect of permanent peace and co-operation between the two countries because, as the internet writer has said, "there cannot be two suns in the sky." See original blog post for more comments
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In the future, when I am elected, I will ensure that Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Burma, Iran, Afghanistan, Maldives and China no longer exists. This is what the future holds. And the populace of all these named countries will be eradicated. I will not leave any one alive. Might was well address the issue of resistance fighters from the root!
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All Nepali hates India because it a bad neighbour. It is bad luck for Nepali.
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 written by rothschild , September 23, 2009
Hm..its sure understandable that Indians are not well appreciated among their neighbors, tribal and feudal leadership doesn't appreciate regional leadership. But the level of corruption in India, despite being slowly tackled with some shrewd Killing squad by polices forces tired of all this status-quo, is not the best way to convince locals that money given to the nation, will be well spent.
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As for Chinese, when they talk about India without considering the ethnic diversity, they misrepresent the sacrifices of their ancestors. They have serious problems tackling local corruption because their party ethics officials aren't powerfull enough at the local level to over-rule bribes at police forces. Both have to test solutions, see what works until they can have a more relaxed internal situation. Give em time. By the way, i think we can name a list for Germany, Japan, USA, France, Britain, South Korea, Russia, Turkey, Iran, Egypt, South America, Brazil, Mexico...of things those have to watch carefully at. So there is no easy way out. report abuse
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written by Ronaldo , August 22, 2009
The Chinese government should continue to flood the Tibet and XinJiang provinces with Hans so that the Hans become the majority there to make it impossible for these regions to secede. Of course at the same time they should do something positive about assimilating the Uighurs and Tibetans into mainstream China, for example through educational opportunities, career oppotunities etc which help to disperse the young generation all over China, so that there is little reason to want to secede.
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China, not India, remains the nation more threatened by the specter of ethnic splitting.
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"The Uighurs of Xinjiang and the Tibetans to their south number fewer than, say, Kashmiris and Assamese in India, yet their aspirations for nationhood garner much greater global sympathy. This is chiefly the fault of Beijing, whose uncompromising, authoritarian rule has pushed certain minorities to the brink and transformed dissident leaders in exile into enduring spiritual anchors for their people. Indeed, China could do worse than to look at India, a country that has managed to live with its proverbial million mutinies by safeguarding regional languages and cultures and, most importantly, letting the poor and marginalized throw out their local rulers every election cycle. Perhaps a time may come, then, when rather than spying weaknesses in India's multiethnic landscape, strategists in Beijing may draw inspiration from their neighbor's pluralism. In an era of great-power gamesmanship, that may be wishful thinking. But it surely is a better path than the one walked by the warmongers and doomsayers on both sides." report abuse
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written by Frank of Seattle , August 21, 2009
Chinese make Indians turning on their allies or masters?
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Aabd al-ghazali, last time I checked, Indians are the only humans fight for all sides. They fight for their white masters American and British. When captured, they will turn on their masters and fight for Germans and Japanese. Just like dogs. That is because Indians do not have a sense of pride and dignity. They will wiggle their tails for a piece of bone. Just like dogs. report abuse
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written by BAM BAM , August 19, 2009
USA called Saddam Hussein a barbarian. Yeah, for sure Saddam very likely tortured and killed a lot of Iraqis. But is USA any better. In the few years that USA attacked and occupied Iraq, the Americans have bombed, shot up, killed , and tortured many many fold more Iraqis than Saddam ever did in his time in power!!! And not only that, USA reduced the whole of Iraq back to the stone age. And how many Vietnamese did the Americans torture and kill? Let's get this right: When the Americans talk about human rights, they only mean human rights for the Americans. It is OK with them if their bombs kill a few of the rest of you, and demolish your country to rubble. They will show that on CNN and Fox News as a blip on a monitor like when you play Star Wars on the video game. They won't show you the "colateral damage" of human suffering from their bombs. These are the same Americans who accuse China of lack of human rights. Yes, China is not exactly innocent of abusing human rights. But that does not mean USA is any better. The bottom line I guess is that China abuse their own kind, whereas USA abuse the Asians and the Middle Easterns. The Chinese do it with a bullet or a truncheon. Americans do it with bombs and missiles.
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Isn't that cute, "Frank"? China, the world's biggest slave factory, preaching on about "servitude".
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Yeah, sorry, we trust Americans a hundred times more than Chinese. I even trust Hindus more than Chinese, and I'm Muslim. Guess what that says about the Chinese? They are only in it for their self interests, their sense of virtue and morality only applies to themselves, anyone outside of China can be damned. That's why they try to attribute everything anti-Chinese to "White people", because they can't stand to bear the truth that most of the world can clearly see their petty tyranny without the help of so-called American agenda. Maybe calling people "running dogs" (their favorite little phrase) is enough to intimidate insecure Chinese into "patriotism", but know full well that people outside of China are not weak-minded enough to be guilted into turning on their allies. Nice try, but all you've done was embarrass yourselves in front of the whole world. report abuse
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written by To "Frank" , August 18, 2009
The Chinese were so weak that a tiny Manchu minority could rule them like dogs for over 200 years and force them to wear pigtails.
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Where are the Manchus today? Most likely those living in Beijing (the former Qing capital) are descended from them but now calling themselves Chinese, since they are virtually indistinguishable. report abuse
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written by Frank , August 18, 2009
Indians always think they are better than others simply because they are closer to their white masters. They are always proud of speaking master's language, having master's political, financial, and jurdicial systems. India's icon Taj was also build by their mongol master.
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Indians enjoy kiss up their master's butts for living. That is why Indians like "service" related work. They like to serve their masters. They will bark and attack if you show of any weakness. If you stand up to them with a big stick, they will run with tails between their legs. Just like dogs. report abuse
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written by Dynas Tee , August 17, 2009
Indian was badly burnt in their support for the LTTE insurgent to create troubles for Sri Lanka.
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Now India is causing problem to the Maoists who were swept in Nepal. If the Nepali Maoists unite with the Indian Maoists, Indian could have a major insurgency in hand. India has always play its Tibet card because of the Dalai Lama refuge there. It might be possible that China may play the Maoist card on India. report abuse
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written by Dynas Tee , August 17, 2009
As far as we know, only the US has maintained a base in Diego Island. The Indians should be able to challenge the US in the so-called Indian pond with its latest nuclear submarine.
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written by Msia , August 16, 2009
China was rich , very rich then, until the collapse of Manchu which was invaded by the west and Japan and reduced to a very poor nation, poorer than India then.
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The sleeping dragon has awaken and recovered much loss recently. The loss recovered is termed the "newly acquired wealth" and have many nations envied again. Once beaten twice shy, China can not afford to lose the "newly acquired wealth" and necessary measurement must be taken to protect it from losing it again. report abuse
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written by Msia , August 16, 2009
China was rich , very rich then, until the collapse of Manchu which was invaded by the west and Japan and reduced to a very poor nation, poorer than India then.
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The sleeping dragon has awaken and recovered much loss recently. The loss recovered is termed the "newly acquired wealth" and have many nations envied again. Once beaten twice shy, China can not afford to lose the "newly acquired wealth" and necessary measurement must be taken to protect it from losing it again. report abuse
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written by Msia , August 16, 2009
China was rich , very rich then, until the collapse of Manchu which was invaded by the west and Japan and reduced to a very poor nation, poorer than India then.
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The sleeping dragon has awaken and recovered much loss recently. The loss recovered is termed the "newly acquired wealth" and have many nations envied again. Once beaten twice shy, China can not afford to lose the "newly acquired wealth" and necessary measurement must be taken to protect it from losing it again. report abuse
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written by BAM BAM , August 16, 2009
Just check the history. USA, Russia, Japan, Britain, Spain and France are the real notorious bunch for stealing and colonising other peopls's territories. China on the other hand has zero history of colonization. China only grew in size when they were conquered (by Mongolians and Manchurians), and the conquerors adopted Chinese custom and system to make a the combined area a bigger China. So the westerners and Japanese should stop the crap about a dangerous new China. China's new found wealth finally gave the country to defend itself against aggression by the other foreign powers. Westerners would like to see China continue as a poor country capable of only doing cheap laundry and cheap but good cooking. But westerners should wake up and stop belittling the Chinese, specially when China is now their biggest creditor. Westerners make fun of Chinese when they can't speak good English, but hey, how many Westerners can even speak a few words of Chinese? India should not fall into the trap of the USA to start having unfriendly ties with China. Both India and China can have a mutually beneficial relationship, and as a combined partnership, they can have a stronger negotiation power vs the west.
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written by Anti White , August 16, 2009
Stop fighting among ourselves, fellow Asians! The real enemy is the white men, who stole, robbed, raped, pillaged &, you name it, all sorts of brutal crimes against all humanity not of the Caucasian kind!
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People of the world unite to rid this 500 years of evil strangled hold of these whites on this precious Planet! The UN Security Council Permanent seats should be reformed into such: US, Russia,China, EU (kick out UK & France but give them one single European seat), India, Brazil, AU (African Union). Israel should be wiped off the map of this world but the Jews are entitled to statehood within US or Europe. Let us Asians not squabble about how little or more territories we can get here & there. Let us kick out the whites from Australia & New Zealand & redistribute them among ourselves. Europeans have no legitimate rights to be in Asia! Would the whites allow an Asian state to exist in the midst of Europe? Not a chance! Also, the western media should not be allowed more voices than their population ratio entitles them. They should not occupy more representations in all international posts on all world bodies than their fair share. It is time to seriously start creating a more balanced world, not that which skewed in the whiteman's favour. Enough is enough for the last 500 years! report abuse
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written by Osaba , August 15, 2009
India is too preoccupied with Pakistan (backed by China) to be engaged in rivalry with any other country.
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Undoubtedly the two Asian Suns.There is more sunshine in India than China.The chinese are an industrious nation,who believe in assimilation not annhilation.While the Indians believe in quick fix solutions! These are not lasting.We need to learn from the Chinese on their powerful negotiaiting skills.
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Not just be negotiators! report abuse
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tibia items, Lowly rated comment [Show]
I think the article misses a large part of this story by focusing on China while omitting Indian aggression in the South Asia region. Why is it that India is so unpopular amongst all its neighbors? Does it have to do with the fact that India employs its own Monroe Doctrine in the region and intervenes in the internal affairs of neighboring countries when it suits it? I have called this policy of interference the India Doctrine and there is sufficient basis for its recognition. Chinese comments have wide sympathy in the region simply because India practices its own covert aggression aimed at achieving regional hegemony and domination.
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written by Tai Chee , August 14, 2009
Yes. Make the Chinese fight the Indians. Make trhe Paki & Bangla fight the Indians. Make the Tibetans & Uighurs fight the Han.
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The West infamous "divide & rule" game over the years. But remember, what goes round comes around. The divine law of cause and effect. In short Karma. We're see the Brits in great numbers consuming drugs for the opium they forced upon a weak China then. We see the 5th column Moslem Brits scheming & planning to blow up the subways. Well, it's payback time. report abuse
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If you wish to be secure on land, you should have supremacy on the sea", said Jawaharlal Nehru
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Hambantota, Colombo, Chittagong, Yangoon, Coco Island and Kwardar China has 68 submarines to India's 16, none of them being nuclear. China has 56 airforce squadrons to India's 12. China has 4 million troops to India's 1.5 million troops. China has 14000 Artillery guns to India's 4000. These are only some examples to show that India is no match for China report abuse
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written by Don , August 14, 2009
So in war, the way is to avoid what is strong and to strike at what is weak.
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- Sun Tzu China's playing dangerous game Oh what a tangled web we weave, When first we practice to deceive - Sir Walter Scott Expected Indian responce. China has pressure points too. Do unto others as you would have them do unto you. -Gospel of Luke report abuse
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Russ was right about Chinese newly acquired wealth.
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In the ended war in Sri Lanka, economic greed of China and tamil's blood changed the colour of the Indian Ocean. China has now announced another $350 million-none of which is directed to long detained civilians. With idiotic Indian foreign policy, China's help to human massacres is unstoppable. report abuse
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written by Gurka , August 14, 2009
Thankless Nepali, lakhs of Nepalis earn a living out of generosity of India. If they had been denied this opportunity a lot of them would have starved to death. I agree that there are some negative points about India's approach to Nepal but on the whole it has been preponderantly beneficial to Nepal. It is easy to find minor faults and forget about the overwhelming benefits derived from this relationship. It is only recently with the growth of China that Nepal has an alternative. 20 years back China was as poor and economically backward as India. Have derived all the benefits for so many years the ungrateful Nepalis now want to forget the Indian generosity for all these years which has put food in the belly of a large portion of Nepali population.
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written by Russ , August 14, 2009
China's newly acquired wealth is very dangerous to humanity, especially with Obama's friendly policies with undemocratic nations.
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Darfur and Sri Lanka were clear examples of China where the culture of mass carnage on civilians, annihilation of free media and opposition, demographic dilution of population are taking place. Why, China's present rule is not good for her own people. That region will in a real danger with smiling Obama. report abuse
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written by BAM BAM , August 14, 2009
It's probably just another crap from the CIA to get Asians fighting each other. The CIA is well known to go around instigating and funding separatist movements within the USA's potential rivals. And it is also well known to get the rivals neighbours to fight each other, so that the USA can remain the sole superpower. Having two new super powers to contend with would be a nightmare for the USA whose hands are already full. Maybe the USA wants China and India to focus on each other. It could even sell more arms to India to help reduce its trade deficit, and at the same time it could muscle China by using India as a bargaining chip. Far fetched? Just look at the history: Iran vs Iraq. Georgia vs Russia. Ukraine vs Russia. India vs Pakistan. North Vietnam vs South Vietnam. Israel vs its neighbours. Just to name a few. Each and very case, the US hands are in there interfering.
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The USA is busy instigating unrest in Tibet, even while it is shaking hands with China. The USA wants to slow down China. Now maybe they can use India as a tool to slow down China, and also slow down India at the same time. While China is giving USA a headache in the manufacturing industry, India could give a big headche to the USA in services, software, and pharnaceutical industries. report abuse
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written by NEPAL , August 14, 2009
DON'T BE THIS MYOPIC AT LEAST SOME ONE WHO MOVES FROM HERE AND THERE IN THE NET WHILE ANALYZING ONE IMPORTANT ISSUE DO NOT IGNORE THOSE FACTS THAT ALSO PROVIDES SOME GLIMPSE INTO WHAT IS HAPPENNIGN IN SOUTH ASIA.
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INDIA HAS OCCUPIED THOUSANDS OF HECTARES OF NEPALI LANDS, IT INTERFERES IN NEPAL'S INTERNAL MATTERS, IT SUPOPRTS SEPERATISTS GROUPS IN NEPAL...INDIA GROMED MAOIST. india is the most hypocratic country in the world. we hate india, i will suport the chinese moev to break india if it pledges to break india into millions of pieces./ report abuse
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written by GM Greenwood , August 14, 2009
A western fascination for China’s great philosopher/strategists, notably Sun Tzu, is well established. China now seems to have returned the compliment with the deniable if unsettling suggestion from a remote echelon of its vast army of ‘experts’ that India be Balkanised. This play is lifted straight from the Bismarckian model for neutralising the post-1875 threat posed by revanchist France to the rise of German power, with perhaps a few twists lifted from the abortive post-1945 Morgenthau Plan intended to reduce Germany to a harmless peasant economy.
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