Asia Sentinel

Still, even if the worst does not come to pass and the Javanese preference for avoiding conflict prevails, Indonesia watchers should be mindful of another witches' brew that could put a severe damper on investor confidence and, ultimately, the economy: the rise of Islamism in the Presidential Palace.

Discussions are now underway to forge a coalition with the fundamentalist-leaning Prosperous Justice Party, or PKS. Most Democratic Party insiders are saying they would not be opposed to the coalition, and senior PKS officials have confirmed that a deal will be made with the president. Other Islamic parties, more moderate than the PKS — such as the United Development Party, or PPP, and the National Mandate Party, or PAN, may also join the coalition, thereby bolstering Yudhoyono's chances of winning over the hearts of voters with a pious bent.

To state that Yudhoyono is taking a huge risk in playing the Islamic card should be obvious, but evidently it is not a risk in the mind of the president. Though he is aware of the fears of the majority of voters that the PKS has a hidden agenda to create an Islamic state, Yudhoyono believes — or better said, he wants to believe — that the PKS is firmly on the path to becoming a moderate, centrist party.

It is hard to fathom how Yudhoyono could be so naive. But this is exactly the Orwellian world of misinformation and denial of truth that the PKS would like Indonesians to subscribe to, where a fundamentalist Islamist party magically becomes a supporter of democracy, free markets and secularism.

This is in spite of the fact that the PKS, by its own admission, owes its original inspiration to radical Islamist parties such as the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt. Numerous credible sources also point to links between the party and Hizbut Tahrir, an international Pan-Islamist organization from Palestine that rejects democracy and aspires to create a global caliphate, first by developing secret cells to infiltrate governments in Muslim countries and then imposing Islamic laws. Finally, there are also stories of ex-PKS members who confess that notorious terrorist figures such as Hambali of Jemaah Islamiyah once had close relations with PKS officials.

With such a dark history, Indonesians would be correct to be distrustful of the party's claims of transmogrifying itself into a party of moderation. When was the last time a religious party of any persuasion — Islamic, Christian or Jewish — showed any signs of tolerance for those outside their own faith and strict adherence to ancient scriptures? And if the PKS has truly become more moderate over time, then why was the party the main author and protagonist of last year's antipornography law that, everybody knows, is nothing less than a thinly veiled attempt to impose Shariah law?

Luckily, the irony of a coalition between the PKS and the president is not missing in the minds of most Indonesians. Opposition parties PDI-P and Gerindra, which have a strong commitment to secularism, are also watching in morbid fascination as Yudhoyono looks to betray his principles for the sake of power. Thankfully, leaders such as Megawati Sukarnoputri know that fundamentalism and the moral absolutism that it entails is antithetical to the precepts of democracy. Without a doubt, the PKS-Democratic Party pairing will open the door wide for an opposition coalition of nationalist-secular parties to vehemently criticize the president for his willingness to share power with a minority Islamist party.

Is this what the electorate bargained for when they voted for Yudhoyono's party? Probably not. Indonesians might consequently be given good reason to pause and reflect on what a second term for Yudhoyono could mean for their future. And Yudhoyono himself would be well advised to consider Yogi Berra's dictum, "It ain't over till it's over," before he invites the fundamentalists to join him as he reaches for power once again.

James van Zorge is a Jakarta-based political analyst. Reprinted with permission of the Jakarta Globe.

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