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Thailand's New Government Staggers Forward
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Written by Our Correspondent   
Wednesday, 04 February 2009

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Democracy Returns to the Land of Smiles
A real democratic movement could cause the Democrat party some grief



Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has faced down immediate threats to his newly-fledged Democrat-led administration, after last weekend's anti-government rally only drew half the numbers that were expected. But any plans to get down to the business of governing will be hampered by formidable problems, not least the continuing corruption and lack of commitment to clean government that historically characterized his party.

Abhisit has already "missed the boat" according to Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of Security and International Studies, who says the two-month old coalition government is already facing a raft of corruption scandals and is losing credibility. While he expects the prime minister to hold on to power for six to 18 months, the country's entrenched political divisions will take between five and eight years to resolve.

In the meantime, the Thai electorate, weary of the tensions and street violence that hammered Bangkok for months last year – culminating in the closure of its two international airports and the loss of millions of dollars of tourist revenue – is expected to give the new government some time to tackle Thailand's economic woes.

However, in a country divided by color, Abhisit’s biggest threat comes not from the red-shirted anti-government protestors that took to Bangkok's streets last Saturday, but from the chance the yellow-clad movement that brought the Democrats to power may eventually turn against him, analysts say.

The right-wing People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) donned yellow, the color of Thailand's much-revered monarch, throughout its protests and airport blockades that effectively brought down the People Power Party (PPP) government, last December. PAD, which won support from powerful military factions and Bangkok's royalist elite, said PPP was a proxy for former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was deposed in a 2006 military coup.

The red-shirt United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) – started by politicians from the deposed Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai party when it was ousted – re-emerged to support the People Power Party, Thai Rak Thai’s Thaksin-driven successor, and to counter the right-wing yellows late last year.

Last weekend, 20,000 to 40,000 reds – around half the 65,000 expected – marched to the gates of Government House demanding that Abhisit sack Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya, a staunch PAD supporter, take legal action against the PAD leadership for its airport blockades last year and pass draft amendments to the 2007 Constitution.

Although UDD vowed to return within 15 days if its demands are not met, the increasingly confident government shows no signs of acceding. But while the number fell far short of the UDD leadership's predicted turnout, something else is happening. The predominantly rural red shirts now have a nascent urban support base, and broadening pro-democratic aims are subsuming their initial pro-Thaksin concerns.

"The only real problem facing Abhisit is the potential that the yellow shirts turn against him. That's much more serious than threat of the red shirts," says political observer and academic Chris Baker. "As long as he keeps his major patrons happy I don't think that will happen. But you can't underestimate how powerful this force has become."

"Otherwise it's quite likely that Abhisit will weather the storm," he says. "He's got such powerful backing from the most important people behind him at the moment. But he has to keep those people happy."


Comments (13)add
0
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written by Bad Dog , March 17, 2009
Rodent,

You seem to be as uninformed as you are angry and incoherent. Most of my claims are common knowledge and the rest have been widely reported in the papers. You seem to be particularly well uninformed.

As to the others, well let's take one.
I submit that any unbiased reasonable person who considers the mentality of the person interviewed by FEER last week and compares it with the mentality of the person who wrote some of those fine-sounding speeches Thaksin delivered during his first couple of years as PM would likely conclude that they were the work of two different people: one with a modern education and one without. Are you up for the challenge, Rodent, or are you afraid that the resulting cognitive dissonance would force you to reconsider your blind allegiance to Thaksin the Magnificent ?

Finally, I note that Thaksin has recently been moaning that he misses home and that that there's only camel meat and camel milk where he's hiding now (whereabouts undisclosed). I would just add that there seems to be no shortage of camel manure there.


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To Mad Dog
written by Rodent , February 24, 2009
Well, your statement really reflect your name, anyway, how can Thailand become one party country is beyond me, care to explain?? And you've accused Thaksin to pay sanate a monthly allowance of baht 50,000, care to explain where you get that number from?? and is this current sanate get the same pay?? Next, THAILAND IS AN ANCIANT COUNTRY WITH MODERN ECONOMY, it never changed since 250 years ago and probably wouldnt if we still have coup detat every once in a while.
And lastly you said Thaksin bought his degree, mine I ask which one?? and how? since he's pretty poor when he did his degree, he was on police academy scholarship, where the hell did he get the money to pay for his degree??? and are you talking about this Phd?? or master?? or what??
Please if you want to open a point with me, do it with some integrity and some logic, at least it wouldnt makes you look bad.
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To Robert Noist
written by Bad Dog , February 21, 2009
Without your Messiah, would there have been the wholesale rollback of democratic checks and balances in an uncompromising effort to turn Thailand effectively into a one party state with one voice? Thaksin's modus operandi was always to continue buying up as much power as possible (e.g. controlling senators through monthly retainers of 50,000 baht per month). the philosophy at work here is that the end justifies the means ("ugly crony capitalism") . Setting aside the speeches obviously penned by others, I don't recall anything Thaksin ever said or did that indicated he had any real vision of how to turn Thailand into a modern country (instead of remaining an ancient one with a modern economy) because like so many Thais both here and abroad he bought his degree.
The guy was a crass, neuvo-rich phoney from the start and an army of cynically exploited poor people, paid mobs and expensive , slick PR can't change the ugly face of the real Thaksin behind the mask.

BAD DOG.
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To: Mr Wrigley
written by Rodent , February 10, 2009
I want to support on your comment that the UDD should alienate Thaksin so that the UDD will have a wider support base. However I want to point out that your assumption is too optimistic for several reasons, first being that UDD is what it is today because of Thaksin, if not because of Thaksin there will be no UDD because people that support him is the first to come out and voice their thought on the coup, yes we have to alinate him, but we cant just erase him out of the picture since many of the UDD supporters are there simply because they want Thaksin. We just cant alinate people from any side of the fence.
Second, I dont think the power that supporting the Dem will simply switch to support UDD just because Thaksin is not there. Dont forget, this is the battle of classes, its the struggle between people that want "true" democracy and equalism as oppose to people that want preserve the old way, the "elitism" and previledge society. Those people will simply wouldnt change side.
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re:photo
written by Mr. Wrigley , February 08, 2009
(sorry the other post sent on accident without edit)
The picture is not from Thailand; it is from Tibet as you pointed out. I believe it is one of the string of photos taken during the "uprising and crackdown" before the 2008 games. As for Thailand, the UDD, if it hopes to take over the government in the next election, needs to ditch and wash its hands of Thaksin ASAP. It is a losing cause to stick with him--even if they win the next election, they wil be chased out again by the PAD and its powerful backers. It is a match they won't win, so best bet now is to find another leader(s) with the Thaksin policy platform and the financing and then run with it. If the Puea Thai think they can get the government back again, then they are going to have to win an out right majority, an extremely difficult, if not impossible proposition. The other factions and networks siding with the Democrats are not going to align with Puea Thai as long as Thaksin is attached to it. Puea Thai supporters need to continue fighting the cause but with different leadership.

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Re: Photo
written by Mr. Wrigley , February 08, 2009
The picture is not from Thailand; it is from Tibet as you pointed out. I believe it is one of the string of photos taken during the "uprising and crackdown" before the 2008 games. As for Thailand, the UDD, if it hopes to take over the government in the next election, needs to ditch and wash its hands of Thaksin ASAP. It is a losing cause to stick with him--even if they win the next election, they wil be chased out again by the PAD and its powerful backers. It is a match they won't win, so best bet now is to find another leader(s) with the Thaksin policy platform and the financing and then run with it. If the Puea Thai think they can get the government back again, then they are going to have not win an out right majority, an extremely difficult, if not impossible proposition. The other factions and networks siding with the Democrats are not going to aligned with Puea Thai as long as Thaksin is attached to it. Puea Thai supporters need to continue fighting the cause but with different leadership.
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The
written by Robert Nolst , February 08, 2009
I support Francis Lee in his observations. But I want to add one very important aspect. In the past years an enormous effort has been put into the character assassination of Dr. Thaksin. Putting red shirts and Thaksin supporters together by the media is only one aspect. The land deal where he was sentenced to 2 years was in fact a non issue as he was not directly involved in the deal itself and don't forget he was sentenced by 5 out of the 9 judges. In that respect the purchase of the land for the telecommunication authorities of Thailand by the daughter of K. Banharn was much worse. The real crime for which the inner circle is prosecuting Thaksin is the act that he was becoming more popular than the Crown Prince. In itself that is of course not too difficult, however having a Prime Minister that in every respect outshines the future King is of course unacceptable. The stories we now read about Thaksin are grossly exaggerated, of course he was filling his pockets but didnt they all. The most corrupt elements of the Thaksin government are now in the democrat government, and not only that, they even hold the cabinet posts where they can fill their pockets; interior and transport. The family of Sino-Thai holds interior and guess where the Japanese money for the Underground extension will go to.... I have never considered myself a fan of Thaksin but in fact he is the best for the country and I feel sorry that he fell victim to this scheme of the old powers in Thailand. Of course he had it coming with his enormous arrogance and self-importance but without him would the airport ever have been built, would the health scheme for all ever have been introduced, would, would children from poor families have received scholarships to study abroad?? The answer is no to all these and many more questions. It is time to repeat 1932 where in fact Thailand got rid of the Monarchy only bey having it restored in stealth.
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No Mercy, Lowly rated comment [Show]
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Is that photo taken in Thailand?
written by D.P.W. , February 05, 2009
I seriously doubt that the photo published at the top of page 1 was taken in Thailand. Those look like Chinese army trucks to me. I am guessing Tibet.
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Asia Sentinel and its quest for journalism, Lowly rated comment [Show]
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Losing favour
written by Tansin , February 05, 2009
Abhisit is losing favour with the West as the image of his main sponsor, the Royal Army is badly tarnished by its human rights abuse of the treatment of Muslim South and Rohinyas.

The Thai society will have no choice but turn to the Economic Genius Thaksin again to solve the growing Economic pains. But will this bring any more stability to the Kingdom.
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the petition
written by HHHHHHHHHjohn lim , February 05, 2009
Chris Baker and Thitinan should look deeper into what is really happening now? Do they know that some very big names already signed their names in a petition to abolish the lese majeste law? This has never happened in Thailand before. This event shows to us that more and more people realize that this law is a main reason that put Thailand backward. These big names are not afraid to face jail term any longer. If one million Thais sign their names in this petition what will the palace do? Do you think they can arrest one million people and put all of them to jail. Or they think they can keep quiet and pretend that nothing happens?
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Nothing fancy. No magic. Just hard work and its pay off.
written by John Francis Lee , February 05, 2009
But while the number fell far short of the UDD leadership's predicted turnout, something else is happening. The predominantly rural red shirts now have a nascent urban support base, and broadening pro-democratic aims are subsuming their initial pro-Thaksin concerns.

The UDD has articulated five points in support of a more civil society:
0. End the limitless power seized by the government under cover of lèse-majesté by eliminating the crime of lèse-majesté. HM King Bhumipol himself is in agreement on this point.
1. Take legal action against the PAD, People Against Democracy, for their lawless rampage while installing their putsch to preclude such lawless chaos in the future.
2. Purge Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya, the man who described the occupation of Suvarnabhumi Airport as “a lot of fun”, with excellent music and excellent food and a good time enjoyed by all.
3. Re-instate the 1997 constitution, "the people's constitution", abrogated by the military with their coup. It might need amendment such as eliminating the requirement that MP's hold Bachelor's degrees, but it was the the Constitution with the most input from the broadest number in the history of such documents.
4. Dissolve the House and hold elections, for no un-elected government can ever claim legitimacy.

And these points appeal to many more people than the fraction who still support the fugitive Thaksin.

While power plays by the PAD and its backers continue to dominate institutional politics, the fact that the UDD is broadening the channels for public dissent should not be overlooked, Thitinan says.

More and more people are realizing that it is up to themselves to build their own political party, that none of the established political players have their interests at heart.

"Thaksin continues to loom large in its leadership," Thitinan says. "It's difficult to see how the movement can be self-sustaining until it is seen to be more independent from him."

This has been the job of the Fawning Corporate Media, making the terms "red-shirts", "the UDD", and "Thaksin supporters" synonymous. The FCM will continue to try to do so but people are beginning to distinguish their opposition to the PAD/Democrat putsch from that of the political dinosaurs still acting as dependents of Thaksin.

"To pull off this last demo was one thing, but to sustain it is much more difficult," he [Chris Baker] says. "They probably have to change their tactics if they want to sustain themselves to be effective. It's difficult to sustain the numbers at these big Bangkok rallies, and if they can't produce the numbers they'll get written off quite quickly."

If the people can organize village by village, tambon by tambon, amphoe by amphoe, jangwat by jangwat and have their own candidates ready when elections are called there is hope for a new day.

HM King Bhumipol has wisely advised the people not only of Thailand but of the wold at large not to become reliant upon the exotic imports of international trade for their daily rice, but to rely on themselves and their own production and local commerce for their vital needs, and thus to immunize themselves from the periodic collapse of the greater economy. This is the 'sufficiency economy' given lipservice to, turned into a joke by the same Mercedes Benz driven "monarchists" using the lèse-majesté laws to silence their opposition.

But implicit within HM's 'sufficiency economy' is a 'sufficiency politic' wherein the world's peoples cease to rely upon the exotic political figures of the day for their basic representation, but instead rely upon themselves and their own efforts at organization for their vital political needs while immunizing themselves from the destructive turf battles of the "big people" as they battle for the spoils in their endless political wars.

It is unlikely that the same Mercedes Benz driven politicians of all stripes will find a way to co-opt a 'sufficiency politic' as they have tried to co-opt HM King Bhumipol's 'sufficiency economy', although I imagine they will try.

The message from HM the King is the same message we all apply in achieving the ends we really commit to in our own lives. Define a goal, make a plan to achieve it, put one foot in front of the other until the goal is reached. Nothing fancy. No magic. Just hard work and its pay off.
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