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 The west-east transfer
of power depends on acquiring technological knowhow to go with it
How far east of
Washington, DC is east? The question arises from the report of the
US-based National Intelligence Council 2025 Project, published in
December, which foresees “the unprecedented transfer of wealth
roughly from West to East:”
The whole international
system, the report says, “as constructed following WWII –
will be revolutionized,” according to the council. “Not
only will new players – Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRICs)
– have a seat at the international high table, they will bring
new stakes and rules of the game.”
Wealth as material
objects means nothing unless a nation acquires the appropriate
knowledge to use it. From the Neanderthal age to the Computer age,
the story of civilization and prosperity is marked by the progress of
technological knowledge. In this sense, the US symbolizes the west
for its technological prowess. It is the only state that, according
to Neil Postman, can be called a technopoly – totalitarian
technocracy. Less so are France, Germany, Russia, et al. Following
the NIC pointer far to the east, can India and China overcome the US
technopoly?
Anyone from outside the
US has reasons to be elated at the possible decline of the “Big
Boys” supremacy, since the observation comes from a highly
influential US agency – the NIC, and not from agencies of
weaker economies. Taken seriously, the observations require careful
consideration. Consider:
India and China have
crossed the US$1 trillion-plus gross domestic product, the latter far
exceeding the former. Indian GDP grew at 9.2 percent, close to double
digits, during 2007 according to the IMF. China did even better at
11.4%. They lend money to the US government. Both achieved all this
with export-led growth, not by catering to their own population.
India achieved high growth by exporting service sector products like
IT and IT enabled services. China exported small-scale and
large-scale industrial products – steel, garments, toys, milk
products, electronic products, etc. Exportable goods are highly
susceptible to demand fluctuation abroad, as evident from the onset
of the current worldwide recession. Export-dependent growth will
remain wobbly. Stability of growth has to be found in the two
countries’ own backyard.
None of these Asian
giants is blessed with endogenous technical progress, the key to
sustained high growth of wealth. The Indian industrial sector depends
heavily on adoption of foreign technology in large-scale industries.
The small and medium scale industrial sectors in India succumbed to
the onslaught from alien technology and have decayed rapidly since
the 1990s. At present 250,000 such Indian industries, employing more
than a million workers, are declared sick.
Though China integrates
large scale with small scale industrial production, her technological
progress is not exemplary either. In fact, the quality of Chinese
products does not match the world standard. Electronic hardware that
China produces for the world depends on designs
and materials supplied by US firms. It is imperative that the
countries intensify technology research and development, suited to
local conditions, and not depend on imported technology. The Indian
space project Chandrayan II and China joining the club of Nuclear
Supplier Group are not complete dossiers of their technology
spectrum. Lacking technology, India in the recent past was compelled
to sign a “123 Agreement” with USA in order to obtain
civilian nuclear technology, when the US herself is not expanding
nuclear energy facilities. Obviously, India will be served with
outdated nuke technology.
This corroborates a
long standing grievance among economists that imported technology is
often outdated and its crucial knowhow is never shared. This is where
the West dominates the East. Control of modern technology is crucial
to western business corporations’ competitive edge. And the US
corporations lead the pack in three crucial areas – war
technology, software and biotechnology.
Seeking geopolitical
control of space the US “war technology” often strikes us
dumb. During the Iraq war in 1991 US army abundantly used
sophisticated war technology, unmatched by any other country in the
world. It even outmaneuvered French and Russian technology used by
Iraq. This the USA is never going to share with the world. Nor do we
wish to see many more countries develop war materials at the cost of
people’s lives.
In everyday parlance we
are faced with a technology spectrum, be it software or
biotechnology, all of which are controlled by US transnational
corporations.
Computers and software
have become part and parcel of our modern data-handling and
communication. Both hardware and software technologies are controlled
totally by the US giants. Processor manufacturers of Intel Pentium,
AMD are located in California’s Silicon Valley. Microsoft
Windows and UNIX are the two oft used software platforms, controlled
by US firms. On such platforms, application softwares, like - Oracle,
Adobe Photoshop, Adobe PageMaker, etc. are produced by US firms.
These all are patented products.
Biotechnology is
another major area where the US industries dominate. Monsanto, Dow
Chemicals, Amgen are some of the US market leaders. According to
recent reports, the US biotech corporations generated revenue of
US$70 billion plus – more than half the world’s revenue
of the industry, whereas Indian biotech industry generated a paltry
$2 billion. Chinese biotechnology research is still at a nascent
state.
The abovementioned
crucial high tech areas put the US in an unassailable position.
Without technological might the east will remain where it is today.
With all the accolades earned from the NIC, growing Asian giants are
not in the reckoning of economic power.
Instead, economic power
will probably shift to countries like France, Russia and Germany, to
the east of Washington, DC. Though biotech research in Europe is yet
to match the US supremacy, as admitted by the European Association of
Bioindustries, France and Germany are in a fiercely competitive mode.
In other fields of
science and technology too, France, Germany and Russia, the countries
according to George W Bush that constitute the “Old Europe”
are growing as potential technological powers. If these countries can
dismantle NATO, the impact of US “war technology” will be
neutralized. Ultimately technological control, in turn economic
power, will shift to “Old Europe” to the east.
Sarajit
Majumdar is a Calcutta-based economist and former member of the
faculty of the Madras Institute of Development Studies, Madras.
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To develop technology one also needs a lot on money - and Asia will have enough of it in the coming decades.
The author quotes incorrectly that 123 deal meants exporting inferior technology. The real reason India needed it is because India is fuel scarce and needs it to run the reactors - technology was just incidental. I can remind the author that India has a fairly mature indegenous breeder reactor technology - though it is still prototype worth.