Asia Sentinel

Malaysia’s bedraggled political opposition, riding an apparent wave of citizen discontent, may be gaining some unaccustomed momentum ahead of voting at Malaysia’s general election, scheduled for March 8.

The opposition, beset by a lack of access not only to the levers of power but access as well to almost any of the elements that would contribute to a level playing field, including to the press or properly apportioned districts, has a nearly unbroken record of losses except for a handful of seats in the Dewan Rakyat, or national parliament, and in local legislatures.

Nonetheless, political analysts say the prospects for the loose-knit opposition coalition, made up of the multi-race Parti Keadilan Rakyat, or Justice Party, the Islamic Parti Islam se-Malaysia, and the Democratic Action Party, which is dominated by Malaysian Chinese, have perhaps the best chance in decades of denying the government its two-thirds monopoly on power.

Almost nobody gives the opposition coalition much more chance than just breaking the national coalition’s two-thirds majority. But a convergence of issues has improved the opposition’s chances. Although the economy is rolling along at a healthy 7.3 percent clip, led by domestic demand and bolstered by rising commodity prices and investment spending, inflation is a nagging issue, as is street crime, particularly in Kuala Lumpur, a city that has always seemed preternaturally safe. The National Crime Index has spiked up by 45 percent over a single year.

In addition, there is rising apprehension among both the Indian and Chinese populations over increasingly strident assertions of racial superiority by ethnic Malays. Whatever the debate, the fact remains that the worst race riots in Malaysian history – in May 1969, 39 years ago, have haunted and shaped Malaysian politics ever since. The race card has been used by all factions in Malaysia’s political scene, be it by the ruling coalition or by the opposition, largely causing the effect of maintaining the status quo.

A long string of corruption charges, many of them backed with considerable proof, have been laid at the door of top UMNO officials. Those charges of corruption have been exacerbated by the fact that Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi followed former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad into office with both a mandate to clean out the stables and a promise to do it, then backed away.

Thus heartened, the main opposition parties have agreed to cooperate with each other, fielding single candidacies in most constituencies to avoid splitting their votes and giving the Barisan a clear path to return to power. The Barisan in 2004 won 91 percent of the seats in the parliament and expects to lose at least some. Badawi himself has sought to dampen expectations, telling supporters and reporters to expect losses. Some analysts have suggested the opposition could take as many as 50 seats in the 219-member body. But as many as 30 would be optimistic.

Part of the opposition’s problem is that the electoral districts are blatantly gerrymandered. In the 2004 elections, although the Barisan won only about 64 percent of the popular vote, it ended up with 198 of the 219 seats. The MCA won 15.5 percent of the popular vote and 31 seats while the opposition DAP won about 10 percent of the vote but only 12 seats.

There are some wild cards. In a country where internet use is increasingly popular, independent websites like Malaysia Today and Malaysiakini are publicizing institutional corruption and other issues, particularly in the judiciary, which is facing its biggest scandal since the country came into existence.

“This election has the power of the Internet that is greatly influencing voters' opinion. Blogs and popular websites are quick and effective disseminators of information, where readers form opinions based on the information received,” Tricia Yeoh, a senior analyst for Malaysia’s Center for Public Policy Studies, told Asia Sentinel. “Secondly, the BN has had numerous issues to contend within the recent year, casting a shadow of gloom over its leadership, as opposed to the ‘positive feel’ it achieved in the 2004 elections.

“Such issues are - dissatisfaction over the demolition of temples and overall marginalisation of the Indians, judicial corruption brought to light, the inability to handle controversial cases on religion, the economy and rising prices, amongst others. Third, the groundswell of civil society in numerous forms: monitoring, advocacy, candidacy, voter education, again making use of the Web - is a significant factor compared to the previous elections,” Yeoh said.

But, Yeoh added, she expects the opposition to win no more than 15 new seats, giving it a total of 34 or so. It now holds 19.

With the opposition throughout its history having failed in any real terms to present any form of shadow government or balance of power to the ruling coalition, as usual the electoral battle is within the Barisan itself. Although Abdullah Badawi sought to consolidate his UMNO power base by attempting to put his own acolytes in place, dropping some old bulls from the battle, other attempts to drop state warlords have backfired.

In the northern state of Perlis, supporters of the incumbent chief minister resigned en masse, locking up operations rooms and refusing to campaign for the party.  Meanwhile, observers say that the MCA president Ong Ka Ting dropped his key rivals, including former health minister Chua Jui Meng, who challenged Ong for the presidency in 2005.

The Barisan itself is riven with a variety of different struggles. Although UMNO previously dominated the cabinet and policy decisions, the MCA, MIC and Gerakan, another Chinese-dominated party, have been unable to have much impact in the wake of adverse court decisions concerning the rights of non-Malays.

Another wild card this time around is Mahathir Mohamad, 82, who for the first time is conspicuously not campaigning for the ruling coalition. Many younger generations have never known another prime minister and the older generation still have a good deal of respect for him. Ever since his venomous attacks started in 2006, in which he lashed out that Abdullah Badawi was not his first choice as successor and that the ill-starred Deputy Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak, himself under fire for corruption, was better qualified, the prime minister has lost headway.

Mahathir has charged that his successor was mismanaging the economy and railed against the influence of Abdullah’s family members, in particular his son-in-law, Khairy Jamaluddin. The former premier’s attacks appear to be cutting into the prime minister’s support.

Grumblings also stem from the perception especially among the Chinese business community that the Malaysian economy is stagnant despite the strong official figures.

On the ground, although campaigning is in full swing, it appears that some urban voters may have already made up their minds to teach the Barisan a lesson. The general feeling extends across middle-class professionals be they Malay, Chinese or Indian, that Abdullah Badawi has failed in keeping his 2004 electoral manifesto and ideals.

More so, Mahathir again dealt a heavy blow when he said it was impossible for UMNO and the Barisan Nasional to reform itself and that it was up to the electorate to do the job.

Abdullah Badawi may be counting on traditional party loyalists and support from rural folk who are enjoying better wages thanks to the boom in commodities, especially palm oil. Malaysia is a major exporter with production standing at 15.8 million tonnes for 2007.

Signs in the kampungs, or rural villages, appear mixed although Barisan politicians say they are confident of success. While many villagers contend that there aren’t many localized grievances, many are concerned over the apparent lack of control that Abdullah Badawi has over the levers of power. Taking their cue from Mahathir, villagers seem unconcerned with national issues such as demonstration by ethnic Indian Malaysians, large pockets of whom seem to have rallied behind the Hindu Rights Action Force. HINDRAF alleges economic discrimination against Malaysian Indians by majority Muslim-Malays. This scenario may be supported by the fact that more than ever before, voters are scrutinizing the resumes of candidates and their suitability.

The time where a candidate could win just by the strength of the party symbol still holds in many safe constituencies. But many others formerly thought to be safe are now demanding to see candidates’ credentials. Furthermore, unlike in the 1999 elections, when Chinese and Indian voters stepped in to shore up the Barisan, non-Malay support does not seem forthcoming.

S. Samy Vellu, the president of the MIC, has come under intense fire with calls for his resignation for his alleged failure to advance the Indian community. The Chinese community may also take the opportunity to vent their anger with MCA over what is the party’s failure to stand up to what were deemed as racist acts when UMNO youth leaders in the widely-televised 2005 UMNO General Assembly, particularly Hishammuddin Hussein Onn, son of Malaysia’s third prime minister and UMNO youth chief, waved a Malay dagger or Keris during his speech and threatened to bathe it in Chinese blood. Malaysian Chinese took offence to that act. The MCA is also weakened as it wallows in internal strife with various factions fighting for influence and positions.

The combination of these factors and more have heartened the opposition. Although the Barisan Nasional will in the end continue its reign, if ever there was a threat to its power, by Malaysian standards anyway now is that time.

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Sabahan filipino
written by vic , July 16, 2008

http://www.royalsulu.com/issues.html

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written by Liang1a , March 05, 2008

Hantu wrote:
So your dream of Sabah and Sarawak to be more successful and be doing better if we join S'pore is not going to happen, if we have natives who sat on their arses all day long doing nothing and expect government to subsidise their every needs.
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Liang's response:
You have just contradicted yourself above. You said the “success” of Malaysia is due to the Chinese factor. But the Chinese are being marginalized in Malaysia. You said Singapore is successful because of its good government. But the Malaysian government dominated by the UMNO and BN is one of the most corrupt governments in the world. Therefore, the Chinese has no hope staying in Malaysia. But under the Singapore leadership, Sabah and Sarawak will not marginalize the Chinese. On the contrary, the Chinese will be unleashed to maximize their initiative and ingenuity and become the powerful economic engine that it could be. The natives will not have the special rights under the NEP. Instead the natives will be encouraged to work just like the Malays in Singapore are encouraged to work. In the end, everybody will be given the equal opportunity to do his best to make the most of his life. And in the process, Sabah and Sarawak will be rapidly advanced to give everybody a good job with a good income that can give them the best life in the world. And all of this without the need for the government to subsidize anybody because everybody has a good job with a good income.

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written by Liang1a , March 05, 2008

Hantu Laut :
Liang1a, you have a dangerous dream. You may want to join Singapore but I am sure many Malaysians in Sabah and Sarawak wouldn't want to join you on this rather dangerous journey.
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Liang's response:
I’m sure there are many Malays in Sabah and Sarawak who are terrified of losing their special rights and easy life if Sabah and Sarawak joined Singapore. But for the rest of the people, it will only be a dream come true.
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Hantu wrote:
Although there may be a lot of corruption in Malaysia, it is still one of the economic tigers in this region. We have good infrastructures, fairly good health services, fairly good income level and many modern amenities.
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Liang's response:
They are good only compared to Indonesia and the Philippines. Compared to any other advanced countries such as Singapore, Taiwan, S. Korea, Japan, etc. Malaysia is a deadbeat.
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Hantu wrote:
People like you make it sounds like you are living in a hell hole without looking at some of the positives aspects.

There is no abject poverty in Malaysia, nobody is starving and there are plenty of food, that's why we have almost 1 million migrant workers in this country. No migrant worker would want to go to a country that can't offer them better livelihood than their motherland.
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Liang's response:
The migrant workers come from Indonesia and the Philippines which are two of the most poverty stricken and corrupt countries in the world. You don’t find people migrating from Singapore and Taiwan into Malaysia. More than 2 million Chinese had left Malaysia to go to Singapore, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, etc. over the last 50 years and are still leaving by droves today. Nobody who can afford it want to stay in Sabah and Sarawak and face hopelessness and fear all the rest of their lives. For the Chinese, Sabah and Sarawak is a hellhole.
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Hantu wrote:
Singapore is very successful because it has a hard working population and a good government. Without good and hard work culture no country can be successful.
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Liang's response:
Exactly. So where is the good government in Malaysia? Where is the hard work culture in Malaysia? Everything in Malaysia is the special rights of the Malays who just laze around and suck the Chinese economic blood. So how could the Chinese be successful under such a culture and such a government? Impossible!!! Which is why the Chinese can only be better off with Singapore who will liberate them to do their best.
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Hantu wrote:
Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea and recently China are examples of people who believe in hard work. Malaysia is successful today because of the Chinese factor, if it had been a homogeneous society, the story would be different from what we have today.
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Liang's response:
Malaysia is indeed less poverty stricken than it would have been if there were only Malays in Malaysia. You’re right to say that it is entirely due to the Chinese factor that Malaysia is relatively “successful” today. But it is also the Chinese who are being marginalized by the NEP. So how could you say it is the Chinese factor that has made Malaysia successful and then make the outrageous claim that Malaysian government with its marginalization of the Chinese is a “good” government? And if the Chinese factor is marginalized, how “successful” can Malaysia be in the future? Obviously, there is no hope unless the Chinese secede from Malaysia and its marginalizing NEP and corrupt UMNO and BN government and go join with Singaproe.
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Stupid to join Corrupt Malaysia
written by True Native of Malaysia , March 03, 2008

Sabah and Sarawak signed their death warrants when they joined Malaysia. Slowly they are strangled to death by corrupt UMNO and its cronies. They are states with rich resources and would have done better on their own or in cooperation with other countries, eg Australia, Singapore, Japan. BUt they had to join the lazy and corrupt central government of the Federation of Malaya which has only brought them corruption. Everything is corrupt in Malaysia...traffic cops to judges. And the government says it is an Islamic State..a state of corruption is Islam?

The elections are a sham. The government controls everything and electoral boundaries are unfair. No way the opposition can win unless the elections are independent.

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Dont Scuttle The Ship.
written by Hantu Laut , March 03, 2008

Liang1a, you have a dangerous dream.You may want to join Singapore but I am sure many Malaysians in Sabah and Sarawak wouldn't want to join you on this rather dangerous journey.

Although there may be a lot of corruption in Malaysia, it is still one of the economic tigers in this region.We have good infrastructures, fairly good health services, fairly good income level and many modern amenities.

People like you make it sounds like you are living in a hell hole without looking at some of the positives aspects.

There is no abject poverty in Malaysia, nobody is starving and there are plenty of food, that's why we have almost 1 million migrant workers in this country.No migrant worker would want to go to a country that can't offer them better livelihood than their motherland.

Singapore is very successful because it has a hard working population and a good government.Without good and hard work culture no country can be successful.

Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea and recently China are examples of people who believe in hard work.Malaysia is successful today because of the Chinese factor, if it had been a homogeneous society, the story would be different from what we have today.

So your dream of Sabah and Sarawak to be more successful and be doing better if we join S'pore is not going to happen, if we we have natives who sat on their arses all day long doing nothing and expect government to subsidise their every needs.

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written by Liang1a , March 02, 2008

dayak wrote:
would you guys support me if i say SARAWAK should withdraw from the federated states of malaysia and be granted INDEPENDENCE.
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Sabah and Sarawak would be happy to get out of the Malaysian Federation and go join Singapore. For sure, an union with Singapore would bring much more honest government with a much better program for rapid economic development based on the proven equality and justice of the Singapore government. Why should Saban and Sarawak be treated as Malay colonies? The natives of Sabah and Sarawak have been duped into thinking that they can get rich together with the Malays by robbing the Chinese through the special rights of the bumis. But in the end, the Chinese either left for other countries or they are able to continue to remain relatively rich through hard work or through corruption. And in the end, it is the non-Malay natives who got their timber and oil wealth plundered by the Malays and never got any benefit out of the federation. Today the non-Malay natives are the poorest peoples in Malaysia and much poorer than the Malays who dominate them like colonial masters. And the Sabah and Sarawak natives will continue to remain the poorest in Malaysia even as Malaysia itself got poorer as more and more Chinese left out of hopelessness and Malaysia sink down to the level of Indonesia.

In the end, the only hope for the non-Malay natives is for Sabah and Sarawak to get out of Malaysia and join Singapore. Then Singapore can extend its efficient governance over these two states to bring dynamic economic growth based on equality and justice. And within 20 years, or 1/3 of the existence of Malaysia, the natives of Sabah and Sarawak will be richer than the Malays in Malaysia. That is the only hope of the Sabah and Sarawak natives.

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Barisan Rakyat ! Malays, Chinese, Indians Unite ! PKR, DAP, PAS Unite !
written by Sagaladoola , March 01, 2008

People, please be reminded that all Malaysians are suffering from the current leadership of Abdullah Ahmad Badawi. Sexist, racist remarks are plenty.

The common bumiputra folks are angry with all the corruption thing. The chinese are heavily capitalised but underappreciated. The indians are treated feel like they are the underdogs of society.

All this happen while BarisanPutra - UMNO, MCA, MIC is sleeping and getting various benefits out of it.

Time to wake up Malaysians. Stop being divided yourself with communal politics. Stand united, hold hands, Malays, Chinese, Indians. Vote for Barisan Rakyat - PKR, DAP, PAS !

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UMNO survive today because of BN SARAWAK
written by dayak , March 01, 2008

UMNO licks Taibs ass hole because Taib mahmud saved them during the birth of keadilan.would you guys support me if i say SARAWAK should withdraw from the federated states of malaysia and be granted INDEPENDENCE.

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written by Liang1a , March 01, 2008

wiseman wrote:
This is the beginning of the end for BN.
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This is true. Obviously the opposition is not very proficient at running an efficient campaign. If the opposition is more proficient at running campaigns and can garner more campaign funds and be able to mobilize their supporters more efficiently to distribute more printed materials to more people and can organize more rallies and can put more supporters to go from door to door to spread their messages, and many other things, then they could certainly garner more supports. But the biggest thing in the opposition's favor is simply the corruption and the inequality of BN. Malaysians are simply sick and tired of it. The Chinese and other non-Malays are sick and tired of the constant threats and marginalization. The Malays are sick and tired of the ever slower growth and the corruption.

And even if the opposition cannot garner more seats this time, other opposition parties will be organized to put forward a better national development program that would bring equality, justice, and prosperity to Malaysia. This is indeed the beginning of the end.

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ECONOMIC DISASTER
written by K.L. Tan , February 29, 2008

The economy rolling along at 7.3%? If anything, one of the most nagging issues of these electrons is the economy. Prices of essential goods have already skyrocketed and the petrol rise following the GE is going to hit Malaysian incomes a body blow. The ringgit and the Malaysian stock market is a mirage whose lie will only be evident after the elections. The Barisan Nasional is guilty of mismanaging the economy and rampaging the country's resources. Yes the BN will win this time too, no thanks to a crooked electoral process...but the country will be a lot poorer for it

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written by wiseman , February 29, 2008

This election is the start of a new wave of political activism by many Malaysians. Whatever the outcome, life will not be the same again. The BN will find itself under attack again and again. It will have to peace because the rot in its core has not been expunged. This is the beginning of the end for BN. Wait for it.

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Gerrymandered like creatures out of Dr Seuss
written by nowinnofee , February 28, 2008

All we want is fair votes:
Reapportionment of votes in Malaysia, is a well known defence for the ruling party. This is clearly used to protect the party members and undermine the opponents. This clearly minimises the role of voters in the election. although it is the hope that ruling party will be denied the 2/3 majority, but many realise that it may not be possible as the government have many tricks up their sleeves. The latest one is the indelible ink. Hundreds and thousands of postal votes have been sent to military personnels and reality is that they would be under strict instruction to vote for the ruling party.
The solution is to develop and fair and equitable policy in relation to gerry mandering. Then the challenge is to come up with an independant commission and really we all know how "independant" can a commission be in Malaysia? Unless of course that commission is agreeable to all the parties in the election.
Anyway enough said. Cast your votes intelligently.

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Electoral Fraud Still An Unresolved Issue
written by Antares , February 28, 2008

Gerrymandering, phantom voters, shameless bribery, and a clearly partisan Election Commission chairman are just a few of the more obvious obstacles faced by the opposition parties in the coming election. I can only hope that thinking Malaysians who are utterly weary of the BN's arrogance, corruption, and sheer stupidity will come out to vote in full force this time around. Enough votes against the BN might jam the machinery of electoral fraud and save Malaysia from another four or five years of grotesque misrule. I for one would be overjoyed to witness the political demise of fatuous dweebs and sleazebags like Najib Tun Razak, Hishamuddin Hussein Onn, Khairy Jamaluddin... in fact, at least 90% of the Umno leadership!

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