Australia and a US–China Trade War

Australia and a US–China Trade WarIt’s time for Australia to get ready for a trade war between the United States and China. Our security alliance partner looks set to pick a fight with our biggest customer. And all this on the back of the US abandonment of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a rules-setting trade deal in which Australia was heavily invested.…

Economic Outlook 2017: China

Economic Outlook 2017: ChinaChina’s economic challenges and risks are expected to mount this year as the country continues to pump in credit to keep growth from skidding to a halt. After last year’s gross domestic product growth of 6.7%, the International Monetary Fund upgraded its 2017 forecast to 6.5 % – 0.3% higher than its October 2016 estimate…

Shock End to TPP from Trump

Shock End to TPP from TrumpBuy Korea, buy Japanese, buy Taiwanese, buy Australian, buy Singaporean, buy Thai, buy Vietnamese, even buy Chinese. Forget about Apple, McDonalds, Goldman Sachs, Citibank, Ford, Boeing – there’s always an alternative. That is the message that President Donald Trump has sent around the world and most of all to America’s supposed allies in Asia. The…

The Red Dragon and the White Cross

The Red Dragon and the White CrossThe Chinese President Xi Jinping visited for Switzerland for the first time, stepping onto Swiss ground to attend the World Economic Forum WEF in Davos. But he used the chance for a state visit, stopping off in Berne to stroll past a Swiss honor guard with Swiss President Doris Leuthard. What brings that small European…

Asia in 2016: China

Asia in 2016: ChinaThe Chinese government had much to be irritated about in 2016, both at home from its gyrating stock markets, and abroad from an unfavorable international ruling on its South China Sea expansion and attacks on its economic policy from Donald Trump, now President-elect of the United States. The Chinese government rejected an international tribunal’s ruling…

A Questioning Asia Waits for the Donald

A Questioning Asia Waits for the DonaldWhen Donald J. Trump is inaugurated as President of the United States on Jan.20, we'll still be guessing which of his tweets foreshadows real intent and which are simply tactical ground-leveling prior to cutting deals, apparently Trump's preferred way of doing business. By the evidence so far, observers can only hope that the president-elect and…

Pakistan Begins to Learn Chinese Development Cost

Pakistan Begins to Learn Chinese Development CostDespite the official narrative in both Beijing and Islamabad, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) an ambitious US$51 billion plan to expand and upgrade Pakistan’s infrastructure that is an integral part of Beijing’s “one belt-one road” regional master strategy, is failing to yield the expected results.   With China-Pakistan bi-lateral trade tilting heavily to the former’s…

Is China’s High Savings Rate a Curse?

Is China’s High Savings Rate a Curse?The average savings rate in China is over 30 percent – that is above-average measured by any global average. In other words, a third of the income of a household does not flow back in the economy but stays blocked in a bank-account or somewhere else. Many, including the Chinese government, see this as a…

China’s Rising Pile of Infrastructure Debt

China’s Rising Pile of Infrastructure DebtWhile China’s emergence as the world’s second biggest economy has led many developing countries to Beijing as the panacea for all economic issues, especially those related to infrastructure development, the country’s leaders are awakening to a new reality: underperformance and debt heading for a crisis. A recent Oxford University titled “Does infrastructure investment lead to…

China’s Export Glut Threatens World Economy

China’s Export Glut Threatens World EconomyAt the height of the 2008 financial crisis, as the world peered into an abyss, China earned global gratitude by pumping a record amount of stimulus into its economy. Ironically, continued stimulus has left the Chinese economy with mounting debt and a production glut threatening world trade. Managing the asymmetry between leading markets and China…