TPP’s Demise Doesn’t Mean China’s Outright Victory

TPP’s Demise Doesn’t Mean China’s Outright VictoryWith the US-led Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) now officially in limbo after President Donald Trump backed out, Asian markets are open for China to dominate. That is the analysis that has dominated the world media in depicting the post-TPP scenario. But for one thing, it fails to quantify the so-called domination and the myriad challenges…

China and the US Contradict Each Other on Trade

China and the US Contradict Each Other on Trade“Pursuing protectionism is like locking oneself in a dark room,” said China’s President Xi Jinping at the World Economic Forum in Davos. “Wind and rain may be kept outside, but so is light and air.” Is China the new global champion of free-trade? Xi’s words of warning were directed at the new American President Donald…

Shock End to TPP from Trump

Shock End to TPP from TrumpBuy Korea, buy Japanese, buy Taiwanese, buy Australian, buy Singaporean, buy Thai, buy Vietnamese, even buy Chinese. Forget about Apple, McDonalds, Goldman Sachs, Citibank, Ford, Boeing – there’s always an alternative. That is the message that President Donald Trump has sent around the world and most of all to America’s supposed allies in Asia. The…

The Red Dragon and the White Cross

The Red Dragon and the White CrossThe Chinese President Xi Jinping visited for Switzerland for the first time, stepping onto Swiss ground to attend the World Economic Forum WEF in Davos. But he used the chance for a state visit, stopping off in Berne to stroll past a Swiss honor guard with Swiss President Doris Leuthard. What brings that small European…

A Questioning Asia Waits for the Donald

A Questioning Asia Waits for the DonaldWhen Donald J. Trump is inaugurated as President of the United States on Jan.20, we'll still be guessing which of his tweets foreshadows real intent and which are simply tactical ground-leveling prior to cutting deals, apparently Trump's preferred way of doing business. By the evidence so far, observers can only hope that the president-elect and…

Pakistan Begins to Learn Chinese Development Cost

Pakistan Begins to Learn Chinese Development CostDespite the official narrative in both Beijing and Islamabad, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) an ambitious US$51 billion plan to expand and upgrade Pakistan’s infrastructure that is an integral part of Beijing’s “one belt-one road” regional master strategy, is failing to yield the expected results.   With China-Pakistan bi-lateral trade tilting heavily to the former’s…

Is China’s High Savings Rate a Curse?

Is China’s High Savings Rate a Curse?The average savings rate in China is over 30 percent – that is above-average measured by any global average. In other words, a third of the income of a household does not flow back in the economy but stays blocked in a bank-account or somewhere else. Many, including the Chinese government, see this as a…

China’s Rising Pile of Infrastructure Debt

China’s Rising Pile of Infrastructure DebtWhile China’s emergence as the world’s second biggest economy has led many developing countries to Beijing as the panacea for all economic issues, especially those related to infrastructure development, the country’s leaders are awakening to a new reality: underperformance and debt heading for a crisis. A recent Oxford University titled “Does infrastructure investment lead to…

China’s Export Glut Threatens World Economy

China’s Export Glut Threatens World EconomyAt the height of the 2008 financial crisis, as the world peered into an abyss, China earned global gratitude by pumping a record amount of stimulus into its economy. Ironically, continued stimulus has left the Chinese economy with mounting debt and a production glut threatening world trade. Managing the asymmetry between leading markets and China…

A Cheaper Currency Can’t Rescue the Chinese Economy

A Cheaper Currency Can’t Rescue the Chinese EconomyThe latest figures show that China is putting paid to the simplistic story that a cheaper currency on its own boosts exports.  Don’t be fooled. The performance of the Chinese economy over the past year  is a demonstration of the truth of that. Since Aug. 11, 2015, when the People’s Bank of China, the central bank, abruptly…
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